IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/csdana/v131y2019icp145-158.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling financial durations using penalized estimating functions

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yaohua
  • Zou, Jian
  • Ravishanker, Nalini
  • Thavaneswaran, Aerambamoorthy

Abstract

Accurate modeling under least restrictive assumptions of patterns in inter-event durations is of considerable interest in the analysis of high-frequency financial data which show liquidity induced patterns for different stocks and often exhibit diurnal patterns in addition to temporal dependence. For analyzing durations between user-defined events in transaction-by-transaction stock prices from the Trade and Quotes (TAQ) database at Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS), a fast and accurate distribution-free modeling methodology is described and implemented using penalized martingale estimating functions on logarithmic autoregressive conditional duration (Log ACD) models. Three approaches are implemented for parameter estimation: solution of nonlinear estimating equations, recursive formulas for the vector-valued parameter estimates, and iterated component-wise scalar recursions, each using effective starting values from an approximating time series model to increase the accuracy of the final estimates. The analyses provide very good fits and predictions that can assist in trading decisions. The approach can be easily extended to other models for financial durations as well as to a large class of linear and nonlinear time series models.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yaohua & Zou, Jian & Ravishanker, Nalini & Thavaneswaran, Aerambamoorthy, 2019. "Modeling financial durations using penalized estimating functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 145-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:131:y:2019:i:c:p:145-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2018.08.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947318302032
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.csda.2018.08.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zou, Hui, 2006. "The Adaptive Lasso and Its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1418-1429, December.
    2. Christian Hafner, 2005. "Durations, volume and the prediction of financial returns in transaction time," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 145-152.
    3. A. Thavaneswaran & B. Abraham, 1988. "Estimation For Non‐Linear Time Series Models Using Estimating Equations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 99-108, January.
    4. Ruey S. Tsay, 2009. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 21, pages 1004-1024, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Lan Wang & Jianhui Zhou & Annie Qu, 2012. "Penalized Generalized Estimating Equations for High-Dimensional Longitudinal Data Analysis," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 353-360, June.
    6. repec:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:711-751 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot, 2000. "The Logarithmic ACD Model: An Application to the Bid-Ask Quote Process of Three NYSE Stocks," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 60, pages 117-149.
    8. repec:adr:anecst:y:2000:i:60:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Joachim Grammig & Kai-Oliver Maurer, 2000. "Non-monotonic hazard functions and the autoregressive conditional duration model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 16-38.
    10. Luc, BAUWENS & Nikolaus, HAUTSCH, 2006. "Modelling Financial High Frequency Data Using Point Processes," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006039, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    11. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    12. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    13. Allen, David & Chan, Felix & McAleer, Michael & Peiris, Shelton, 2008. "Finite sample properties of the QMLE for the Log-ACD model: Application to Australian stocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 163-185, November.
    14. Aerambamoorthy Thavaneswaran & Nalini Ravishanker & You Liang, 2015. "Generalized duration models and optimal estimation using estimating functions," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 67(1), pages 129-156, February.
    15. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    16. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. "Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chiranjit Dutta & Kara Karpman & Sumanta Basu & Nalini Ravishanker, 2023. "Review of Statistical Approaches for Modeling High-Frequency Trading Data," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 85(1), pages 1-48, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. N. Taylor & Y. Xu, 2017. "The logarithmic vector multiplicative error model: an application to high frequency NYSE stock data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 1021-1035, July.
    2. Bhatti, Chad R., 2009. "Intraday trade and quote dynamics: A Cox regression analysis," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(7), pages 2240-2249.
    3. Stanislav Anatolyev & Dmitry Shakin, 2006. "Trade intensity in the Russian stock market:dynamics, distribution and determinants," Working Papers w0070, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    4. Vasileios Siakoulis & Ioannis Venetis, 2015. "On inter-arrival times of bond market extreme events. An application to seven European markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 717-741, October.
    5. Roman Huptas, 2016. "The UHF-GARCH-Type Model in the Analysis of Intraday Volatility and Price Durations – the Bayesian Approach," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Nikolaus Hautsch & Peter Malec & Melanie Schienle, 2014. "Capturing the Zero: A New Class of Zero-Augmented Distributions and Multiplicative Error Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 89-121.
    7. Dungey, Mardi & Henry, Olan & McKenzie, Michael, 2010. "From Trade-to-Trade in US Treasuries," Working Papers 10446, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 01 May 2010.
    8. Siakoulis, Vasilios, 2015. "Modeling bank default intensity in the USA using autoregressive duration models," MPRA Paper 64526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Danúbia R. Cunha & Roberto Vila & Helton Saulo & Rodrigo N. Fernandez, 2020. "A General Family of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models Applied to High-Frequency Financial Data," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, March.
    10. Dionne, Georges & Duchesne, Pierre & Pacurar, Maria, 2009. "Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) using tick-by-tick data with application to the Toronto Stock Exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 777-792, December.
    11. Saulo, Helton & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy & Vila, Roberto, 2023. "On a quantile autoregressive conditional duration model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 425-448.
    12. Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2005. "Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 35-68, July.
    13. Gurgul Henryk & Machno Artur, 2017. "Trade Pattern on Warsaw Stock Exchange and Prediction of Number of Trades," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 18(1), pages 91-114, March.
    14. Bhatti, Chad R., 2010. "The Birnbaum–Saunders autoregressive conditional duration model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(10), pages 2062-2078.
    15. repec:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:711-751 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Wong, Woon K. & Tan, Dijun & Tian, Yixiang, 2009. "Informed trading and liquidity in the Shanghai Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 66-73, March.
    17. Dungey, Mardi & Long, Xiangdong & Ullah, Aman & Wang, Yun, 2014. "A semiparametric conditional duration model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 362-366.
    18. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November.
    19. Kul B. Luintel & Yongdeng Xu, 2017. "Testing weak exogeneity in multiplicative error models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 1617-1630, October.
    20. Yiing Fei Tan & Kok Haur Ng & You Beng Koh & Shelton Peiris, 2022. "Modelling Trade Durations Using Dynamic Logarithmic Component ACD Model with Extended Generalised Inverse Gaussian Distribution," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, May.
    21. Dungey, Mardi & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Li, Tuo, 2010. "Modelling the Time Between Trades in the After-Hours Electronic Equity Futures Market," Working Papers 10451, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 30 May 2012.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:131:y:2019:i:c:p:145-158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.