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Efficient estimation of COM–Poisson regression and a generalized additive model

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  • Chatla, Suneel Babu
  • Shmueli, Galit

Abstract

The Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (CMP) or COM–Poisson regression is a popular model for count data due to its ability to capture both under dispersion and over dispersion. However, CMP regression is limited when dealing with complex nonlinear relationships. With today’s wide availability of count data, especially due to the growing collection of data on human and social behavior, there is need for count data models that can capture complex nonlinear relationships. One useful approach is additive models; but, there has been no additive model implementation for the CMP distribution. To fill this void, we first propose a flexible estimation framework for CMP regression based on iterative reweighed least squares (IRLS) and then extend this model to allow for additive components using a penalized splines approach. Because the CMP distribution belongs to the exponential family, convergence of IRLS is guaranteed under some regularity conditions. Further, it is also known that IRLS provides smaller standard errors compared to gradient-based methods. We illustrate the usefulness of this approach through extensive simulation studies and using real data from a bike sharing system in Washington, DC.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatla, Suneel Babu & Shmueli, Galit, 2018. "Efficient estimation of COM–Poisson regression and a generalized additive model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 71-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:121:y:2018:i:c:p:71-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2017.11.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Galit Shmueli & Thomas P. Minka & Joseph B. Kadane & Sharad Borle & Peter Boatwright, 2005. "A useful distribution for fitting discrete data: revival of the Conway–Maxwell–Poisson distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(1), pages 127-142, January.
    2. Simon N. Wood, 2011. "Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(1), pages 3-36, January.
    3. Simon N. Wood, 2008. "Fast stable direct fitting and smoothness selection for generalized additive models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 495-518, July.
    4. Simon N. Wood, 2004. "Stable and Efficient Multiple Smoothing Parameter Estimation for Generalized Additive Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 673-686, January.
    5. Ramesh Gupta & S. Sim & S. Ong, 2014. "Analysis of discrete data by Conway–Maxwell Poisson distribution," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 98(4), pages 327-343, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Darcy Steeg Morris & Kimberly F. Sellers, 2022. "A Flexible Mixed Model for Clustered Count Data," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.

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