IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/corfin/v86y2024ics0929119924000518.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The sunk cost fallacy in venture capital staging: Decision-making dynamics for follow-on investment rounds

Author

Listed:
  • Hogrebe, Fabian
  • Lutz, Eva

Abstract

The decision to participate in a follow-on investment round is fundamental for venture capitalists, as it determines the extent of financial and non-financial resources they will provide to the portfolio company going forward. In this context, we analyze the effect of sunk costs, i.e., the invested capital and monitoring efforts expended, on the likelihood of subsequent funding. Based on a dataset of 30,602 investment decisions about US-based portfolio companies from 2009 to 2019, we find that both the amount of capital previously invested and the intensity of monitoring significantly increase the probability of continued investment, underscoring the sunk cost fallacy's role in venture capital. Additionally, we investigate the moderating effects of fund maturity, represented by dry powder and fund age, on these relationships. The results highlight the intricate balance between investment biases and fund-level considerations in venture capital decisions, contributing to the behavioral finance literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Hogrebe, Fabian & Lutz, Eva, 2024. "The sunk cost fallacy in venture capital staging: Decision-making dynamics for follow-on investment rounds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:86:y:2024:i:c:s0929119924000518
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102589
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119924000518
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102589?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Budina, Nina & Garretsen, Harry & Jong, Eelke de, 1999. "Liquidity constraints and investment in transition economies : the case of Bulgaria," Research Report 00E05, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    2. Masulis, Ronald W. & Nahata, Rajarishi, 2011. "Venture Capital Conflicts of Interest: Evidence from Acquisitions of Venture-Backed Firms," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 395-430, April.
    3. Stephens, Bryan & Butler, John Sibley & Garg, Rajiv & Gibson, David V., 2019. "Austin, Boston, Silicon Valley, and New York: Case studies in the location choices of entrepreneurs in maintaining the Technopolis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 267-280.
    4. Ting Yao & Hugh O'Neill, 2022. "Venture capital exit pressure and venture exit: A board perspective," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(13), pages 2829-2848, December.
    5. Darwin V. Neher, 1999. "Staged Financing: An Agency Perspective," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(2), pages 255-274.
    6. Tian, Xuan, 2011. "The causes and consequences of venture capital stage financing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 132-159, July.
    7. Lei Zhang, 2019. "Founders Matter! Serial Entrepreneurs and Venture Capital Syndicate Formation," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 43(5), pages 974-998, September.
    8. Thomas Hellmann & Manju Puri, 2002. "Venture Capital and the Professionalization of Start‐Up Firms: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 169-197, February.
    9. Douglas J. Cumming, 2006. "The Determinants of Venture Capital Portfolio Size: Empirical Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1083-1126, May.
    10. Mikko Jääskeläinen & Markku Maula & Tuukka Seppä, 2006. "Allocation of Attention to Portfolio Companies and the Performance of Venture Capital Firms," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 30(2), pages 185-206, March.
    11. Kandel, Eugene & Leshchinskii, Dima & Yuklea, Harry, 2011. "VC Funds: Aging Brings Myopia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 431-457, April.
    12. Christian Hopp, 2010. "When do venture capitalists collaborate? Evidence on the driving forces of venture capital syndication," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 417-431, November.
    13. Steven N. Kaplan & Per Strömberg, 2003. "Financial Contracting Theory Meets the Real World: An Empirical Analysis of Venture Capital Contracts," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 281-315.
    14. Gorman, Michael & Sahlman, William A., 1989. "What do venture capitalists do?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 231-248, July.
    15. Krishnan, C. N. V. & Ivanov, Vladimir I. & Masulis, Ronald W. & Singh, Ajai K., 2011. "Venture Capital Reputation, Post-IPO Performance, and Corporate Governance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1295-1333, October.
    16. Kanniainen, Vesa & Keuschnigg, Christian, 2003. "The optimal portfolio of start-up firms in venture capital finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 521-534, November.
    17. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    18. Manigart, S. & Bruining, J. & Lockett, A. & Meuleman, M., 2002. "Why Do European Venture Capital Companies Syndicate?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-98-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    19. Mann, Ronald J. & Sager, Thomas W., 2007. "Patents, venture capital, and software start-ups," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 193-208, March.
    20. Elango, B. & Fried, Vance H. & Hisrich, Robert D. & Polonchek, Amy, 1995. "How venture capital firms differ," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-179, March.
    21. Gompers, Paul A, 1995. "Optimal Investment, Monitoring, and the Staging of Venture Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1461-1489, December.
    22. Nina Budina & Harry Garretsen & Eelke De Jong, 2000. "Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 453-475, July.
    23. Paul A. Gompers & Josh Lerner, 1998. "What Drives Venture Capital Fundraising?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998 Micr), pages 149-204.
    24. Cumming, Douglas & Dai, Na, 2010. "Local bias in venture capital investments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 362-380, June.
    25. Nico Lehnertz & Carolin Plagmann & Eva Lutz, 2022. "Why deep pockets make great borrowers: an empirical analysis of venture loans," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(9), pages 1431-1453, November.
    26. Giot, Pierre & Schwienbacher, Armin, 2007. "IPOs, trade sales and liquidations: Modelling venture capital exits using survival analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 679-702, March.
    27. Yao-Wen Hsu, 2010. "Staging of venture capital investment: a real options analysis," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 265-281, October.
    28. Josh Lerner & Ramana Nanda, 2020. "Venture Capital's Role in Financing Innovation: What We Know and How Much We Still Need to Learn," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 237-261, Summer.
    29. Dongmei Li, 2011. "Financial Constraints, R&D Investment, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2974-3007.
    30. Murphy, Kevin J., 2003. "Stock-based pay in new economy firms," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-3), pages 129-147, January.
    31. Mark Van Osnabrugge & Robert J. Robinson, 2001. "The influence of a venture capitalist's source of funds," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 25-39, January.
    32. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap & David Scharfstein, 1991. "Corporate Structure, Liquidity, and Investment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 33-60.
    33. Bergemann, Dirk & Hege, Ulrich, 1998. "Venture capital financing, moral hazard, and learning," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 703-735, August.
    34. Douglas Cumming & Na Dai, 2013. "Why Do Entrepreneurs Switch Lead Venture Capitalists?," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 37(5), pages 999-1017, September.
    35. Indraneel Chakraborty & Michael Ewens, 2018. "Managing Performance Signals Through Delay: Evidence from Venture Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2875-2900, June.
    36. Mike Wright & Andy Lockett, 2003. "The Structure and Management of Alliances: Syndication in the Venture Capital Industry," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(8), pages 2073-2102, December.
    37. Jenkinson, Tim & Sousa, Miguel, 2015. "What determines the exit decision for leveraged buyouts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 399-408.
    38. Vladimir Smirnov & Andrew Wait, 2004. "Hold-up and Sequential Specific Investments," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(2), pages 386-400, Summer.
    39. repec:eme:mfppss:mf-06-2016-0178 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Chang, Sea Jin, 2004. "Venture capital financing, strategic alliances, and the initial public offerings of Internet startups," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 721-741, September.
    41. Devigne, David & Manigart, Sophie & Wright, Mike, 2016. "Escalation of commitment in venture capital decision making: Differentiating between domestic and international investors," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 253-271.
    42. Whited, Toni M, 1992. "Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-1460, September.
    43. Sahlman, William A., 1990. "The structure and governance of venture-capital organizations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 473-521, October.
    44. Lahr, Henry & Mina, Andrea, 2016. "Venture capital investments and the technological performance of portfolio firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 303-318.
    45. Miona Milosevic & Benjamin Le Pendeven & Jacqueline Fendt, 2020. "Follow-on financing through syndication in the VC industry – a signaling perspective of VC human capital and fund characteristics," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 35-69, January.
    46. Jean-Noël Barrot, 2017. "Investor Horizon and the Life Cycle of Innovative Firms: Evidence from Venture Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(9), pages 3021-3043, September.
    47. Plagmann, Carolin & Lutz, Eva, 2019. "Beggars or choosers? Lead venture capitalists and the impact of reputation on syndicate partner selection in international settings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 359-378.
    48. Patzelt, Holger & Shepherd, Dean A. & Deeds, David & Bradley, Steven W., 2008. "Financial slack and venture managers' decisions to seek a new alliance," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 465-481, July.
    49. Peter Witt & German Brachtendorf, 2006. "Staged Financing of Start-ups," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(2), pages 185-203, June.
    50. Dmitriy V. Chulkov & John M. Barron, 2019. "Turnover in top management and de-escalation of commitment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(23), pages 2534-2551, May.
    51. Cumming, Douglas & Dai, Na, 2011. "Fund size, limited attention and valuation of venture capital backed firms," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 2-15, January.
    52. Arkes, Hal R. & Blumer, Catherine, 1985. "The psychology of sunk cost," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 124-140, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 573-648, Elsevier.
    2. Douglas Cumming & Sofia Johan, 2007. "Advice and monitoring in venture finance," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(1), pages 3-43, March.
    3. Wang, Lanfang & Wang, Susheng, 2012. "Economic freedom and cross-border venture capital performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 26-50.
    4. Massimo G. Colombo & Douglas Cumming & Ali Mohammadi & Cristina Rossi-Lamastra & Anu Wadhwa, 2016. "Open business models and venture capital finance," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 25(2), pages 353-370.
    5. Jens Burchardt & Ulrich Hommel & Dzidziso Samuel Kamuriwo & Carolina Billitteri, 2016. "Venture Capital Contracting in Theory and Practice: Implications for Entrepreneurship Research," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 40(1), pages 25-48, January.
    6. Tereza Tykvová, 2018. "Venture capital and private equity financing: an overview of recent literature and an agenda for future research," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 325-362, May.
    7. Chortareas, Georgios E. & Girardone, Claudia & Ventouri, Alexia, 2013. "Financial freedom and bank efficiency: Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1223-1231.
    8. André Gygax & Anna Griffiths, 2007. "Do venture capitalists imitate portfolio size?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(1), pages 69-94, March.
    9. Rainer Lauterbach & Isabell Welpe & Jan Fertig, 2007. "Performance differentiation: cutting losses and maximizing profits of private equity and venture capital investments," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(1), pages 45-67, March.
    10. Kanniainen, Vesa & Keuschnigg, Christian, 2004. "Start-up investment with scarce venture capital support," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1935-1959, August.
    11. Andrew Metrick & Ayako Yasuda, 2011. "Venture Capital and Other Private Equity: a Survey," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 619-654, September.
    12. Douglas Cumming & Sofia Johan, 2006. "Provincial preferences in private equity," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(4), pages 369-398, December.
    13. Bernile, Gennaro & Cumming, Douglas & Lyandres, Evgeny, 2007. "The size of venture capital and private equity fund portfolios," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 564-590, September.
    14. Plagmann, Carolin & Lutz, Eva, 2019. "Beggars or choosers? Lead venture capitalists and the impact of reputation on syndicate partner selection in international settings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 359-378.
    15. Cumming, Douglas & Fleming, Grant & Suchard, Jo-Ann, 2005. "Venture capitalist value-added activities, fundraising and drawdowns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 295-331, February.
    16. Hoenen, Sebastian & Kolympiris, Christos & Schoenmakers, Wilfred & Kalaitzandonakes, Nicholas, 2014. "The diminishing signaling value of patents between early rounds of venture capital financing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 956-989.
    17. Axel Buchner & Susanne Espenlaub & Arif Khurshed & Abdulkadir Mohamed, 2018. "Cross-border venture capital investments: The impact of foreignness on returns," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(5), pages 575-604, July.
    18. Wang, Lanfang & Wang, Susheng, 2011. "Cross-border venture capital performance: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 71-97, January.
    19. Kang, Jun-Koo & Li, Yingxiang & Oh, Seungjoon, 2022. "Venture Capital Coordination in Syndicates, Corporate Monitoring, and Firm Performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    20. Bhanot, Karan & Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan, 2022. "Pay for performance, partnership success, and the internal organization of venture capital firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Venture capital; Decision-making; Sunk costs; Fund maturity; Follow-on investments; Staged financing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • L24 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Contracting Out; Joint Ventures
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:86:y:2024:i:c:s0929119924000518. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcorpfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.