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Actuarial model and its application for implicit pension debt in China

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  • Wang, Lijian

Abstract

Whether the pension system transition is successful is closely related to the accurately accounted IPD amount and rationally solved scheme. China faces the problem of IPD with no exception. This paper uses individual cost method theory, combining Chinese pension system and its operation, builds up the implicit pension debt calculation model, then it measures the Chinese IPD quantity by statistical data. The paper finds out that the average IPD per-year is 39.404 billion Yuan in 2013–2050, the maximum is 185.053 in 2022, the minimum is 0.150 in 2050, and the accumulative IPD will sustain growth with annual growth rate of 7.06% in 2013–2050, from 119.787 billion Yuan to 1497.337 billion Yuan. Finally, this paper proposes the government to raise the legal retirement age, reduce the pension substitution rate, expand the coverage of endowment insurance, improve the investment yield of the pension fund, and so on, to compensate the IPD in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Lijian, 2016. "Actuarial model and its application for implicit pension debt in China," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 224-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:89:y:2016:i:c:p:224-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2015.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mel Cousins, 2021. "The sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Programme: A case of getting old before getting rich?," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(1), pages 59-77, January.
    3. Mukesh Kumar Anand & Rahul Chakraborty, 2019. "Public Expenditure on Old-Age Income Support in India: Largesse for a Few, Illusory for Most," Working Papers id:13035, eSocialSciences.
    4. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Yali Liu & Junzhang Hao, 2017. "Quantitative Analyses of Transition Pension Liabilities and Solvency Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, December.

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