IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v89y2016icp224-227.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Actuarial model and its application for implicit pension debt in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Lijian

Abstract

Whether the pension system transition is successful is closely related to the accurately accounted IPD amount and rationally solved scheme. China faces the problem of IPD with no exception. This paper uses individual cost method theory, combining Chinese pension system and its operation, builds up the implicit pension debt calculation model, then it measures the Chinese IPD quantity by statistical data. The paper finds out that the average IPD per-year is 39.404 billion Yuan in 2013–2050, the maximum is 185.053 in 2022, the minimum is 0.150 in 2050, and the accumulative IPD will sustain growth with annual growth rate of 7.06% in 2013–2050, from 119.787 billion Yuan to 1497.337 billion Yuan. Finally, this paper proposes the government to raise the legal retirement age, reduce the pension substitution rate, expand the coverage of endowment insurance, improve the investment yield of the pension fund, and so on, to compensate the IPD in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Lijian, 2016. "Actuarial model and its application for implicit pension debt in China," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 224-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:89:y:2016:i:c:p:224-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2015.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077915003458
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2015.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reisen, Helmut, 1997. "Liberalizing foreign investments by pension funds: Positive and normative aspects," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1173-1182, July.
    2. Robalino, David A. & Bodor, András, 2009. "On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role of government-indexed bonds," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 153-187, April.
    3. Lans Bovenberg & Carel Petersen, 1992. "Public debt and pension policy," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2009. "The Liabilities and Risks of State-Sponsored Pension Plans," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 191-210, Fall.
    5. Xiaoxing Liu & Ying Zhang & Lin Fang & Yuanxue Li & Wenqing Pan, 2015. "Reforming China’s Pension Scheme for Urban Workers: Liquidity Gap and Policies’ Effects Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-19, August.
    6. Tianhong Chen & John A. Turner, 2014. "Social Security Individual Accounts in China: Toward Sustainability in Individual Account Financing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(8), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Bovenberg, A.L. & Petersen, C., 1992. "Public debt and pension policy," Other publications TiSEM a1c7c616-a820-457e-937b-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Wang, Yan & Xu, Dianqing & Wang, Zhi & Zhai, Fan, 2004. "Options and impact of China's pension reform: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 105-127, March.
    9. Wang, Lijian & Béland, Daniel & Zhang, Sifeng, 2014. "Pension financing in China: Is there a looming crisis?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 143-154.
    10. Robert Holzmann, 2000. "The World Bank Approach to Pension Reform," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 11-34, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jia Wang & Huan Liu & Mei Li & Han Li, 2024. "Will the State‐owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 32(3), pages 98-129, May.
    2. Mel Cousins, 2021. "The sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Programme: A case of getting old before getting rich?," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(1), pages 59-77, January.
    3. Mukesh Kumar Anand & Rahul Chakraborty, 2019. "Public Expenditure on Old-Age Income Support in India: Largesse for a Few, Illusory for Most," Working Papers id:13035, eSocialSciences.
    4. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Yali Liu & Junzhang Hao, 2017. "Quantitative Analyses of Transition Pension Liabilities and Solvency Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaohua Chen & Zaigui Yang, 2019. "Stochastically Assessing the Financial Sustainability of Individual Accounts in the Urban Enterprise Employees’ Pension Plan in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Robert Holzmann, 1993. "Reforming old-age pensions systems in Central and Eastern European countries in transition," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 191-218, December.
    3. Mukesh Kumar Anand & Rahul Chakraborty, 2019. "Public Expenditure on Old-Age Income Support in India: Largesse for a Few, Illusory for Most," Working Papers id:13035, eSocialSciences.
    4. Hans G. Bloemen & Arie Kapteyn, 1993. "The Joint Estimation of a Non-Linear Labour Supply Function and a Wage Equation Using Simulated Response Probabilities," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 29, pages 175-205.
    5. Harald Uhlig, 1998. "Capital Income Taxation and the Sustainability of Permanent Primary Deficits," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Steven Brakman & Hans Ees & Simon K. Kuipers (ed.), Market Behaviour and Macroeconomic Modelling, chapter 12, pages 309-337, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Qi Yang, 2019. "Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Mel Cousins, 2021. "The sustainability of China’s Urban Employees’ Pension Programme: A case of getting old before getting rich?," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(1), pages 59-77, January.
    8. Cheng Yuan & Chengjian Li & Lauren A. Johnston, 2018. "The intergenerational education spillovers of pension reform in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 671-701, July.
    9. Pierre Koning & C.J. Heinrich, 2009. "Cream-skimming, parking and other intended and unintended effects of performance-based contracting in social welfare services," CPB Discussion Paper 134.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Phil Agulnik & Julian Le Grand, 1998. "Tax relief and partnership pensions," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 403-428, November.
    11. Karl Wärneryd, 1993. "Anarchy, Uncertainty, And The Emergence Of Property Rights," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, March.
    12. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1997. "Capital Income Taxation and the Sustainability of Permanent Primary Deficits," Other publications TiSEM c1ae3c26-2aab-4f49-9c3d-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Jia Wang & Huan Liu & Mei Li & Han Li, 2024. "Will the State‐owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 32(3), pages 98-129, May.
    14. Alex Hathaway & Carolyn Bourdeaux & Emily Franklin, 2019. "Fiscal Transparency and Accountability," Center for State and Local Finance Working Paper Series cslf1912, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    15. Lekniūtė, Zina & Beetsma, Roel & Ponds, Eduard, 2019. "U.S. municipal yields and unfunded state pension liabilities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 15-32.
    16. Taoyuan Wei & Qin Zhu & Solveig Glomsrød, 2018. "Ageing Impact on the Economy and Emissions in China: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, April.
    17. Wade D. Pfau, 2008. "Emerging Market Pension Funds and International Diversification," GRIPS Discussion Papers 08-10, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    18. Alexander Dyck & Paulo Manoel & Adair Morse, 2022. "Outraged by Compensation: Implications for Public Pension Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(6), pages 2928-2980.
    19. Fitzpatrick, Maria D., 2014. "Retiree health insurance for public school employees: Does it affect retirement?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 88-98.
    20. Vittas, Dimitri, 1998. "Institutional investors and securities markets : which comes first?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2032, The World Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:89:y:2016:i:c:p:224-227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.