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Influence of isolation measures for patients with mild symptoms on the spread of COVID-19

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  • Pan, Qiuhui
  • Gao, Ting
  • He, Mingfeng

Abstract

During the transmission of COVID-19, the hospital isolation of patients with mild symptoms has been a concern. In this paper, we use a differential equation model to describe the propagation of COVID-19, and discuss the effects of intensity of hospital isolation and moment of taking measures on development of the epidemic. The results show that isolation measures can significantly reduce the epidemic final size and the number of dead, and the greater the intensity of measures, the better, but duration of the epidemic will be prolonged. Whenever isolation measures are taken, the epidemic final size and the number of dead can be reduced. In early stage of the epidemic, taking measures one day later has little impact, but after a certain period, if taking measures one day later, the epidemic final size and the number of dead increase sharply. Taking measures as early as possible makes the maximum number of patients appear later, which is conducive to expanding medical bed resources and reducing the pressure on medical resource demand. As long as possible, high-intensity isolation measures should be taken in time for patients with mild symptoms.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Qiuhui & Gao, Ting & He, Mingfeng, 2020. "Influence of isolation measures for patients with mild symptoms on the spread of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304203
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110022
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    1. Michael George Roberts & Hiroshi Nishiura, 2011. "Early Estimation of the Reproduction Number in the Presence of Imported Cases: Pandemic Influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(5), pages 1-9, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Utsumi, Shinobu & Arefin, Md. Rajib & Tatsukawa, Yuichi & Tanimoto, Jun, 2022. "How and to what extent does the anti-social behavior of violating self-quarantine measures increase the spread of disease?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Yuan Liu & Chuyao Liao & Li Zhuo & Haiyan Tao, 2022. "Evaluating Effects of Dynamic Interventions to Control COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Guangdong, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-17, August.

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