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Ambiguity vs risk: An experimental study of overconfidence, gender and trading activity

Author

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  • Yang, Xiaolan
  • Zhu, Li

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the effect of overconfidence and gender on trading activity in experimental asset markets under a symmetric information setting. We measure the degree of overconfidence in three forms—miscalibration, a better-than-average effect, and the illusion of control, and design two treatments (Ambiguity and Risk) that differ by the prior information available about the distribution of the dividend in the asset market. Our results indicate that traders who think they are on average better in terms of trading ability trade more only in the Ambiguity Treatment where prior information about the distribution is omitted. Males also have a higher degree of overconfidence in the better-than-average effect and trade significantly more than females in the Ambiguity Treatment. Both overconfidence and gender do not appear to play a role in increasing trading volume in the Risk Treatment including information on distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Xiaolan & Zhu, Li, 2016. "Ambiguity vs risk: An experimental study of overconfidence, gender and trading activity," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 125-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:9:y:2016:i:c:p:125-131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2016.01.003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Xiaoye, 2022. "Performance of intraday technical trading in China’s gold market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Richard J. Arend, 2022. "Strategy under Ambiguity, and a New Type of Decision Dilemma," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Grosch, Kerstin & Fischer, Sabine, 2024. "Gender equivalence in overconfidence A large-scale experimental study in a non-WEIRD country," Department for Strategy and Innovation Working Paper Series 02/2024, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Negrea, Bogdan & Toma, Mihai, 2017. "Dynamic CAPM under ambiguity—An experimental approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 22-32.
    5. Daniela Di Cagno & Daniela Grieco, 2019. "Measuring and Disentangling Ambiguity and Confidence in the Lab," Games, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Dela Cruz, Aeson Luiz & Patel, Chris & Ying, Sammy & Pan, Peipei, 2020. "The relevance of professional skepticism to finance professionals’ Socially Responsible Investing decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    7. Pia Arenius & Swee-Hoon Chuah & Bronwyn Coate & Robert Hoffmann, 2021. "The economic psychology of creating and venturing: a comparative behavioural portrait of artists and entrepreneurs," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 721-737, August.
    8. Jin, Xiaoye, 2021. "What do we know about the popularity of technical analysis in foreign exchange markets? A skewness preference perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Aggarwal, Divya & Damodaran, Uday, 2020. "Ambiguity attitudes and myopic loss aversion: Experimental evidence using carnival games," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence; Gender; Trading activity; Ambiguity; Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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