IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v81y2022ics1049007822000537.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why do exports react less to real exchange rate depreciations than to appreciations? Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Brun, Martin
  • Gambetta, Juan Pedro
  • Varela, Gonzalo J.

Abstract

We examine if and why export responses to real exchange depreciations are lower than those to appreciations. We document this asymmetric response using macro-level data for Pakistan and show that export adjustments after depreciations are less than one-third as fast as those to appreciations. We use product-destination level data to examine three complementary drivers of this asymmetry: (i) information frictions that increase the search costs of finding new clients; (ii) supply constraints related limited access to credit that reduce exporters’ capacity to scale up after relative prices become more favorable; and (iii) reduced prices in US dollars offered by international buyers after local currency depreciations, akin to a pricing-to-market mechanism. We find evidence of the three drivers explaining the dampened export response to depreciations. Policymakers in developing countries should consider addressing these issues to maximize export responses to real depreciations.

Suggested Citation

  • Brun, Martin & Gambetta, Juan Pedro & Varela, Gonzalo J., 2022. "Why do exports react less to real exchange rate depreciations than to appreciations? Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:81:y:2022:i:c:s1049007822000537
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2022.101496
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007822000537
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2022.101496?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gita Gopinath & Emine Boz & Camila Casas & Federico J. Díez & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2020. "Dominant Currency Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 677-719, March.
    2. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
    3. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
    4. Ruo Chen & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Thierry Tressel, 2013. "External imbalances in the eurozone [Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(73), pages 101-142.
    5. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
    7. Mr. Jarkko Turunen & Mr. Richard T. Harmsen & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2011. "Euro Area Export Performance and Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 2011/140, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Anubha Dhasmana, 2015. "Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 143, pages 48-69.
    9. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    10. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    11. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real Effective Exchange Rates for 178 Countries: a New Database," Working Papers 1201, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    13. THORBECKE, Willem & KATO Atsuyuki, 2012. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Germany's Exports," Discussion papers 12081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    15. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2007. "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 837-873, May.
    16. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:28:y:2013:i:73:p:101-142 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Michal Szkup, 2023. "No Credit, No Gain: Trade Liberalization Dynamics, Production Inputs, And Financial Development," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 809-836, May.
    18. Demian, Calin-Vlad & di Mauro, Filippo, 2018. "The exchange rate, asymmetric shocks and asymmetric distributions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 68-85.
    19. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
    20. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Frank Verboven, 2001. "The Evolution of Price Dispersion in the European Car Market," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 811-848.
    21. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    22. Gil-Pareja, Salvador, 2003. "Pricing to market behaviour in European car markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 945-962, December.
    23. Shujaat Abbas & Abdul Waheed, 2015. "Pakistan’s potential export flow: The gravity model approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(4), pages 367-377, October-D.
    24. Gonzalo Varela, 2011. "A Framework to Analyze the Impact of Exchange Rate: Uncertainty on Output Decisions," Working Paper Series 2411, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    25. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    26. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Baek, Jungho, 2016. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 15-30.
    27. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Kosma, Theodora S., 2007. "Market power and exchange rate pass-through," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 202-222.
    28. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "East Asian value chains, exchange rates, and regional exchange rate arrangements," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    29. Mallick, Sushanta & Marques, Helena, 2010. "Data frequency and exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from India's exports," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 13-22, January.
    30. Mallick, Sushanta & Marques, Helena, 2012. "Pricing to market with trade liberalization: The role of market heterogeneity and product differentiation in India’s exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 310-336.
    31. Ahmed Pirzada, 2019. "Do exchange rate shocks matter for Pakistan's export performance?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 19/711, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ghulam Mustafa & Saqib Hussain, 2023. "What are the Factors Making Pakistan’s Exports Stagnant? Insight from Literature Review," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 62(3), pages 449-460.
    2. Andrés Jung & Silvia Vázquez, 2023. "Export concentration in developing countries: do real exchange rate misalignments matter?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 563-593, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brun,Martin & Gambetta,Juan Pedro & Varela,Gonzalo J., 2020. "Slow Rockets and Fast Feathers or the Link between Exchange Rates and Exports : A Case Study for Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9353, The World Bank.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Meredith Crowley & Lu Han & Huasheng Song, 2018. "Markets and Markups: A New Empirical Framework and Evidence on Exporters from China," Discussion Papers 1803, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.
    4. Gregory Corcos & Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Yuanzhe Tang, "undated". "Firm-level export and import survival over the business cycle," Working Papers 2022-22, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    5. A. Auer, Raphael & Chaney, Thomas & Sauré, Philip, 2018. "Quality pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 87-102.
    6. Raphael A. Auer, 2013. "Product Heterogeneity, Cross-Country Taste Differences, and the Consumption Home Bias," Working Papers 13.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    7. Conconi, Paola & Sapir, André & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2016. "The internationalization process of firms: From exports to FDI," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 16-30.
    8. Raphael Auer, 2009. "Product Heterogeneity, Within-Industry Trade Patterns, and the Home Bias of Consumption?," Working Papers 09.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    9. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Michal Szkup, 2021. "Financial Frictions and International Trade," Working Papers 2021-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    10. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2008. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Consumption Prices: What Has Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 139-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Federico J. Diez & Jesse Mora & Alan C. Spearot, 2016. "Firms in international trade," Working Papers 16-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    12. Fernando Leibovici, 2021. "Financial Development and International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(12), pages 3405-3446.
    13. Adam, Antonis & Moutos, Thomas, 2014. "Do capital importing countries pay higher prices for their imports of goods?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 95-108.
    14. Albornoz, Facundo & Fanelli, Sebastián & Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2016. "Survival in export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 262-281.
    15. Frohm, Erik, 2023. "Dominant currencies and the export supply channel," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Li, Jie & Lan, Liping & Ouyang, Zhigang, 2020. "Credit constraints, currency depreciation and international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    17. Iacovone, Leonardo & Ferro, Esteban & Pereira-López, Mariana & Zavacka, Veronika, 2019. "Banking crises and exports: Lessons from the past," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 192-204.
    18. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Wolfenzon, 2015. "Dissecting the Effect of Credit Supply on Trade: Evidence from Matched Credit-Export Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 333-359.
    20. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Sequential exporting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 17-31.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export performance; Real exchange rates; Financial dependence; Pricing-to-market; Developing countries; Threshold Autoregressive Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:81:y:2022:i:c:s1049007822000537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.