IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v55y2018icp84-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China’s belt and road initiative: A preliminary quantitative assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Zhai, Fan

Abstract

Using a global computable general equilibrium model, this paper investigates the macroeconomic impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Accounting for the externalities of infrastructure development with respect to trade cost reduction and energy efficiency improvement, the analysis finds BRI would bring sizable benefits to the world economy in terms of welfare and trade, even under conservative assumptions about the size of total investment under the initiative. However, China and other BRI countries need to address several important challenges in order to implement this initiative with success and realize these benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhai, Fan, 2018. "China’s belt and road initiative: A preliminary quantitative assessment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 84-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:84-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007817300775
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Jianwei Xu, 2017. "China's Belt and Road Initiative: Can Europe Expect Trade Gains?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(6), pages 84-99, November.
    2. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    3. Tim Summers, 2016. "China’s ‘New Silk Roads’: sub-national regions and networks of global political economy," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1628-1643, September.
    4. World Bank, 2005. "Global Economic Prospects 2005 : Trade, Regionalism and Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14783.
    5. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
    6. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Annette Pelkmans-Balaoing, 2009. "Regional Integration in Asia: The Role of Infrastructure," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Joseph Francois & Pradumna B. Rana & Ganeshan Wignaraja (ed.), Pan-Asian Integration, chapter 7, pages 439-485, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fan Zhai, 2010. "The Benefits of Regional Infrastructure Investment in Asia : A Quantitative Exploration," Microeconomics Working Papers 22803, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-692, September.
    3. Itakura, Ken & Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2014. "Examining Trade Response of Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing Module in a CGE Model," Conference papers 332513, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Chu Ping Lo, 2018. "China's New Silk Road and China-EU Trade," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 683-701, November.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Valenzuela, Ernesto & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Welfare and Poverty Effects of Global Agricultural and Trade Policies Using the Linkage Model," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52785, World Bank.
    6. Oyamada, Kazuhiko, 2013. "Parameterization of applied general equilibrium models with flexible trade specifications based on the Armington, Krugman, and Melitz models," IDE Discussion Papers 380, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    7. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2018. "Impact of border barriers, returning migrants, and trade diversion in Brexit: Firm exit and loss of variety," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 193-204.
    8. Kazuhiko Oyamada & Kaoru Nabeshima & Etsuyo Michida, 2015. "Analyses of EU RoHS/ELV Directives Based on an AGE Model with Melitz-type Trade Specification," EcoMod2015 8304, EcoMod.
    9. Rod Falvey & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "The breadth of preferential trade agreements and the margins of exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 181-251, February.
    10. Christoph Boehringer & Edward Balistreri & Thomas Rutherford, 2018. "Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies," Working Papers V-415-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2018.
    11. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Cray, Stephen R. & Gervais, Antoine, 2023. "Increasing marginal costs, firm heterogeneity, and the gains from “deep” international trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "International Agricultural Trade and Negotiations : Coping with a New Landscape [Commerce et négociations agricoles commerciales: s'ajuster au nouvel environnement]," Working Papers hal-01592099, HAL.
    13. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2016. "Comparison of Welfare Results from Trade Liberalization in the Armington, Krugman and Melitz Models: Impacts with features of real economies," Conference papers 332773, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Peter Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen Rimmer, 2016. "Modern Trade Theory for CGE Modelling: The Armington, Krugman and Melitz Models," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 1-110, June.
    15. Stephen Devadoss & Jeff Luckstead, 2018. "Implications of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement for Processed Food Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 66(3), pages 415-440, September.
    16. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2016. "Impact of Brexit: Firm Exit and Loss of Variety," GRIPS Discussion Papers 16-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    17. Roberto Roson & Kazuhiko Oyamada, 2014. "Introducing Melitz-Style Firm Heterogeneity in CGE Models: Technical Aspects and Implications," Working Papers 2014:04, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    18. Li, Qiaomin & Scollay, Robert & Gilbert, John, 2017. "Analyzing the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on FDI in a CGE framework with firm heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 409-420.
    19. D’Artis Kancs, 2010. "Structural Estimation of Variety Gains from Trade Integration in Asia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 270-288, September.
    20. Zeynep Akgul & Nelson B Villoria & Thomas W Hertel, 2016. "GTAP-HET: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity into the GTAP Model," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 111-180, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:84-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.