IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v43y2016icp27-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The double dividend of agricultural trade liberalization: Consistency between national food security and gains from trade

Author

Listed:
  • Hosoe, Nobuhiro

Abstract

National food security is one of the main justifications for opposition to agricultural trade liberalization in Japan. Opponents of liberalization argue that because food crop production is subject to high variability, over-reliance on imports would be risky. To assess the risks to Japan with and without trade liberalization, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of productivity shocks within a computable general equilibrium model for the four crops of greatest significance in the Japanese diet – rice, wheat, maize, and oilseed. Our results indicate that productivity shocks for rice and maize have a substantial effect on welfare. Liberalizing trade for these crops would both raise expected welfare and reduce welfare fluctuations. This double dividend was forecast even when we limited the simulation to cases of extremely poor crop yields in Japan's major source countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2016. "The double dividend of agricultural trade liberalization: Consistency between national food security and gains from trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 27-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:27-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2016.02.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007816300136
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2016.02.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rutten, Martine & Shutes, Lindsay & Meijerink, Gerdien, 2013. "Sit down at the ball game: How trade barriers make the world less food secure," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Nobuhiro Hosoe & Kenji Gasawa & Hideo Hashimoto, 2010. "Textbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-28165-3, December.
    3. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    4. Tanaka, Tetsuji & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2011. "Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty?: Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 368-377, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hosoe, Nobuhiro & Akune, Yuko, 2020. "Can the Japanese agri-food producers survive under freer trade? A general equilibrium analysis with farm heterogeneity and product differentiation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Balié, Jean & Valera, Harold Glenn, 2020. "Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Hosoe, Nobuhiro & Akune, Yuko, 2019. "Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Japanese Agri-food Sectors: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Farm Heterogeneity and Product Differentiation," Conference papers 333025, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Yoji Kunimitsu & Gen Sakurai & Toshichika Iizumi, 2020. "Systemic Risk in Global Agricultural Markets and Trade Liberalization under Climate Change: Synchronized Crop-Yield Change and Agricultural Price Volatility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Nobuhiro Hosoe & Yuko Akune, 2019. "Can the Japanese Agri-food Sectors Survive by Promoting their Exports?:A General Equilibrium Analysis with Farm Heterogeneity and Product Differentiation," GRIPS Discussion Papers 19-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    6. Valeria Borsellino & Emanuele Schimmenti & Hamid El Bilali, 2020. "Agri-Food Markets towards Sustainable Patterns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-35, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tetsuji Tanaka & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2011. "What Drove the Crop Price Hikes in the Food Crisis?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 11-16, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    2. Hosoe, Nobuhiro & Akune, Yuko, 2020. "Can the Japanese agri-food producers survive under freer trade? A general equilibrium analysis with farm heterogeneity and product differentiation," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Nobuhiro Hosoe & Yuko Akune, 2019. "Can the Japanese Agri-food Sectors Survive by Promoting their Exports?:A General Equilibrium Analysis with Farm Heterogeneity and Product Differentiation," GRIPS Discussion Papers 19-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    4. Palatnik, Ruslana R. & Kan, Iddo & Rapaport-Rom, Mickey & Ghermandi, Andrea & Eboli, Fabio & Shechter, Mordechai, 2011. "Land transformation analysis and application," Conference papers 332155, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. André Carrascal & Luis Orea, "undated". "TFP growth, embeddedness, and Covid-19: a novel production model that allows estimating trade elasticities," Working Papers 6, International Society for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis.
    6. Hosoe, Nobuhiro & Akune, Yuko, 2019. "Impact of Trade Liberalization on the Japanese Agri-food Sectors: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Farm Heterogeneity and Product Differentiation," Conference papers 333025, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Rutten, Martine & Shutes, Lindsay & Meijerink, Gerdien, 2013. "Sit down at the ball game: How trade barriers make the world less food secure," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Hans G. Jensen & Kym Anderson, 2017. "Grain Price Spikes and Beggar-thy-Neighbor Policy Responses: A Global Economywide Analysis," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 158-175.
    9. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2018. "Impact of border barriers, returning migrants, and trade diversion in Brexit: Firm exit and loss of variety," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 193-204.
    10. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2013. "Japanese Manufacturing Facing the Power Crisis after Fukushima: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis with Foreign Direct Investment," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-01, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    11. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2022. "Quantifying the Impacts of Sanctions Following Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine," GRIPS Discussion Papers 22-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    12. Yoshitomo Ogawa & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2020. "Optimal indirect tax design in an open economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(5), pages 1081-1107, October.
    13. Lindsay Shutes & Marijke Kuiper, 2015. "Expanding the household coverage of global simulation models: an application to Ghana," FOODSECURE Technical papers 3, LEI Wageningen UR.
    14. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2016. "Impact of Brexit: Firm Exit and Loss of Variety," GRIPS Discussion Papers 16-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    15. Amzul Rifin & Feryanto & Herawati & Harianto, 2020. "Assessing the impact of limiting Indonesian palm oil exports to the European Union," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Boulanger, Pierre & Kavallari, Aikaterini & M'barek, Robert & Rau, Marie Luise & Rutten, Martine, 2015. "Options to improve food security in North Africa: CGE modelling of deeper trade and investment integration with the European Union," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211366, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-46925-0, October.
    18. Sartori, Martina & Schiavo, Stefano, 2015. "Connected we stand: A network perspective on trade and global food security," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 114-127.
    19. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2021. "Impact of tighter controls on Japanese chemical exports to Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 631-648.
    20. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2022. "Economic de-integration in North America and foreign direct investment from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    National food security; Agricultural trade liberalization; Productivity shocks; Computable general equilibrium analysis; Monte Carlo simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:27-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.