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Supply and demand shocks in the global oil market: How much do they matter for exchange rates in OPEC members?

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  • Baek, Jungho

Abstract

The current article uses the SVAR and ARDL methodologies to study the dynamic responses of exchange rates for OPEC's 13-member countries to oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks. We discover that the timing and the direction of the responses of the OPEC currencies appear to differ with the cause of the oil price shocks. We also reveal that the effects of the three oil shocks could be viewed as a short-run phenomenon for the OPEC currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Baek, Jungho, 2023. "Supply and demand shocks in the global oil market: How much do they matter for exchange rates in OPEC members?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:81:y:2023:i:c:s0301420723000144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103306
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL; Exchange rates; Oil demand shocks; Oil supply shocks; OPEC; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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