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The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis

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  • Goyal, Ashima
  • Arora, Sanchit

Abstract

We analyze the impact of conventional monetary policy measures such as interest rates, intervention, and other quantitative measures, on exchange rate level and volatility, and compare these to the impact of Central Bank communication using dummy variables in the best of a family of GARCH models estimated with daily and monthly Indian data. Since India has a managed float, we also test if the measures affect the level of the exchange rate. We find variations in the Euro/Dollar rate strongly affect the Rupee/Dollar level and volatility. The interest rate differential has strong perverse effects, tending to increase variance and depreciate the Indian currency. News decreases volatility as it adds to scarce information. Domestic policy variables affect both level and volatility, and persist at the monthly frequency, but sometimes work at cross-purposes. Communication channels have potential but were not used effectively.

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  • Goyal, Ashima & Arora, Sanchit, 2012. "The Indian exchange rate and Central Bank action: An EGARCH analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 60-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:23:y:2012:i:1:p:60-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2011.09.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Prabheesh, K. P. & Kumar, Sanjiv, 2022. "How Do the Financial Markets Respond to Emerging Economies’ Asset Purchase Program? Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," ADBI Working Papers 1314, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Munazza Jabeen & Saud Ahmad Khan, 2014. "Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility by Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Pakistan," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 6(2), pages 58-76, September.
    3. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2021. "Qualitative and quantitative Central Bank communications and professional forecasts: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Takeshi Inoue, 2015. "Central Bank Intervention And Exchange Rate Behavior: Empirical Evidence For India," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(02), pages 1-11.
    5. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.
    6. Chaubal Aditi, 2020. "Exchange rates in India: current account monetarism in a nonlinear context," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-27, December.
    7. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2014. "Does central bank transparency affect stock market volatility?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 362-377.
    8. Ashima Goyal, 2015. "Foreign exchange markets, intervention and exchange rate regimes," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    9. H. F. Tareq Ahmed & Nur Syazwani Mazlan, 2021. "The Impact of Interest Rate on Exchange Rate Within ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Frameworks," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 7-34, January.
    10. Smita Roy Trivedi & P. G. Apte, 2016. "Central Bank Intervention in USD/INR Market: Estimating Its Reaction Function and Impact on Volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(3), pages 263-279, September.
    11. Tetiana Yukhymenko & Oleh Sorochan, 2024. "Impact of the Central Bank's Communication on Macrofinancial Outcomes," Working Papers 01/2024, National Bank of Ukraine.
    12. Juan Galvis & Claudio de Moraes & Juan Anzoátegui, 2017. "Effects of monetary policy announcements on exchange rate volatility: an analysis for Colombia, 2008-2015," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 87, pages 67-95, Julio - D.
    13. Solomiia Brychka & Denys Klynovskyi & Dmytro Krukovets & Artem Oharkov, 2019. "Meta-Analysis: Meta-Analysis: Effect of FX interventions on the exchange rate," Modern Economic Studies, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-44.
    14. repec:erh:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:59-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
    16. Olga S. Kuznetsova & Sofiya R. Ulyanova, 2016. "The Impact Of A Central Bank’S Verbal Interventions On Stock Exchange Indices In A Resource Based Economy: The Evidence From Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 155/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    17. Соломія Бричка & Денис Клиновський & Дмитро Круковець & Артем Огарков, 2019. "Мета-аналіз: ефект fx-інтервенцій на валютний курс," Suchasni ekonomichni doslidzhennja, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-47.
    18. Abdul Rishad & Sanjeev Gupta & Akhil Sharma, 2021. "Official Intervention and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from India," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(3), pages 357-379, September.
    19. Ghosh, Sunandan & Kundu, Srikanta, 2019. "Central Bank Intervention in Foreign Exchange Market under Managed Float: A Three Regime Threshold VAR Analysis of Indian Rupee-US Dollar Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 93466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 598-609.
    21. Ashima Goyal, 2018. "Evaluating India’s exchange rate regime under global shocks," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 304-321, September.
    22. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ivando Faria, 2015. "Brazilian Central Bank communication and interest rate expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 25-44, July.
    23. Kumar, Sanjiv & Prabheesh, K.P. & Bashar, Omar, 2022. "Examining the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 91-113.
    24. Smita Roy Trivedi & Bobby Srinivasan, 2016. "Impact of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from India Using an Event Study Approach," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(4), pages 389-402, December.
    25. Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo & Oliveira de Moraes, Claudio & Anzoátegui Zapata, Juan Camilo, 2017. "Efectos de los anuncios de política monetaria sobre la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio: un análisis para Colombia, 2008-2015," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 87, pages 67-95, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate volatility; Monetary policy; Intervention; Communication; EGARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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