Integrated energy demand-supply modeling for low-carbon neighborhood planning

As the building stock is projected to double before the end of the half-century and the power grid is transitions to low-carbon resources, planning new construction hand in hand with the grid and its capacity is essential. This paper presents a method that combines urban building energy modeling and local planning of renewable energy sources (RES) using an optimization framework. The objective of this model is to minimize the investment and operational cost of meeting the energy needs of a group of buildings. The framework considers two urban-scale RES technologies, photovoltaic (PV) panels and small-scale wind turbines, alongside energy storage system (ESS) units that complement building demand in case of RES unavailability. The urban buildings are modeled abstractly as “shoeboxes” using the Urban Modeling Interface (umi) software. We tested the proposed framework on a real case study in a neighborhood in Chicago, Illinois, USA. The results include estimated building energy consumption, optimal capacity of the installed power supply resources, hourly operations, and corresponding energy costs for 2030. We also imposed different levels of CO2 emissions cuts. The results demonstrate that solar PV has the most prominent role in supplying local renewables to the neighborhood, with wind power making only a small contribution. Moreover, as we imposed different CO2 emissions caps, we found that ESS plays an increasingly important role at lower CO2 emissions levels. We can achieve a significant reduction in CO2 emissions with a limited increase in cost (75% emissions reduction at a 15% increase in overall energy costs). Overall, the results highlight the importance of modeling the interactions between building energy use and electricity system capacity expansion planning.