IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v298y2021ics0306261921006164.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind

Author

Listed:
  • Shields, Matt
  • Beiter, Philipp
  • Nunemaker, Jake
  • Cooperman, Aubryn
  • Duffy, Patrick

Abstract

Turbine and plant upsizing are major trends in offshore wind deployment, although the quantitative impact on project costs has not been well-characterized. The uncertain value of continued wind turbine and project growth limits the ability of the supply chain to prepare for future technology trends, leading to challenges in the realization of larger projects. This analysis explores the levelized cost of energy impacts of turbine ratings between 6 and 20 MW and plant capacities between 250 and 2,500 MW for fixed-bottom offshore wind using techno-economic cost models for foundation, electrical, installation, and operation and maintenance costs, along with annual energy production. We consider a nominal set of technology assumptions for all scenarios to isolate economies of size and scale without additional benefits from decreasing turbine capital costs, quantity discounts for larger projects, or optimized technology solutions. These results indicate that using a 20-MW wind turbine in a 2,500-MW power plant array can reduce the levelized cost of energy by over 23% relative to the global average turbine and plant size installed in 2019; primarily because of reductions in the balance-of-system and operation and maintenance costs. We also identify improved installation vessels, optimized export systems, and novel operation and maintenance strategies as additional cost reduction opportunities. These results suggest that upsizing represents a significant cost reduction opportunity for offshore wind energy and will continue to be a main factor in shaping the future of the sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Shields, Matt & Beiter, Philipp & Nunemaker, Jake & Cooperman, Aubryn & Duffy, Patrick, 2021. "Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:298:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921006164
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117189
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921006164
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117189?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Jincheng & Wang, Feng & Stelson, Kim A., 2018. "A mathematical approach to minimizing the cost of energy for large utility wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1413-1422.
    2. Ryan Wiser & Karen Jenni & Joachim Seel & Erin Baker & Maureen Hand & Eric Lantz & Aaron Smith, 2016. "Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(10), pages 1-8, October.
    3. Ederer, Nikolaus, 2014. "The right size matters: Investigating the offshore wind turbine market equilibrium," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 910-921.
    4. Dismukes, David E. & Upton, Gregory B., 2015. "Economies of scale, learning effects and offshore wind development costs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 61-66.
    5. Ryan Wiser & Joseph Rand & Joachim Seel & Philipp Beiter & Erin Baker & Eric Lantz & Patrick Gilman, 2021. "Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 555-565, May.
    6. van der Zwaan, Bob & Rivera-Tinoco, Rodrigo & Lensink, Sander & van den Oosterkamp, Paul, 2012. "Cost reductions for offshore wind power: Exploring the balance between scaling, learning and R&D," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 389-393.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuan Zhang & Xin Cai & Shifa Lin & Yazhou Wang & Xingwen Guo, 2022. "CFD Simulation of Co-Planar Multi-Rotor Wind Turbine Aerodynamic Performance Based on ALM Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Smart, Gavin & Noonan, Miriam & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2022. "Technological progress observed for fixed-bottom offshore wind in the EU and UK," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. Papi, F. & Bianchini, A., 2022. "Technical challenges in floating offshore wind turbine upscaling: A critical analysis based on the NREL 5 MW and IEA 15 MW Reference Turbines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Sara C. Pryor & Rebecca J. Barthelmie & Jeremy Cadence & Ebba Dellwik & Charlotte B. Hasager & Stephan T. Kral & Joachim Reuder & Marianne Rodgers & Marijn Veraart, 2022. "Atmospheric Drivers of Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion: Review and Recommendations for Future Research," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-41, November.
    5. Jaan Rönkkö & Ali Khosravi & Sanna Syri, 2023. "Techno-Economic Assessment of a Hybrid Offshore Wind–Wave Farm: Case Study in Norway," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, May.
    6. Pryor, Sara C. & Barthelmie, Rebecca J., 2024. "Wind shadows impact planning of large offshore wind farms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    7. Hughes, Llewelyn & Longden, Thomas, 2024. "Offshore wind power in the Asia-Pacific: Expert elicitation on costs and policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Wang, H. & Ke, S.T. & Wang, T.G. & Kareem, A. & Hu, L. & Ge, Y.J., 2022. "Multi-stage typhoon-induced wind effects on offshore wind turbines using a data-driven wind speed field model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 765-777.
    9. Fouz, D.M. & Carballo, R. & López, I. & González, X.P. & Iglesias, G., 2023. "A methodology for cost-effective analysis of hydrokinetic energy projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    10. Farid Khazaeli Moghadam & Nils Desch, 2023. "Life Cycle Assessment of Various PMSG-Based Drivetrain Concepts for 15 MW Offshore Wind Turbines Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-26, February.
    11. De Tian & Jing Xia & Xiaoya Liu & Jingjing Hao & Yan Li & Peng Li, 2023. "Environmental Condition Boundary Design for Direct-Drive Permanent Magnet (DDPM) Wind Generators by Using Extreme Joint Probability Distribution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Rebecca J. Barthelmie & Gunner C. Larsen & Sara C. Pryor, 2023. "Modeling Annual Electricity Production and Levelized Cost of Energy from the US East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-29, June.
    13. Jeong, Michael & Loth, Eric & Qin, Chris & Selig, Michael & Johnson, Nick, 2024. "Aerodynamic rotor design for a 25 MW offshore downwind turbine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    14. Xu, Li & Wang, Jin & Ou, Yanxia & Fu, Yang & Bian, Xiaoyan, 2022. "A novel decision-making system for selecting offshore wind turbines with PCA and D numbers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    15. Vetters, Jade & Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Passel, Steven, 2024. "Sailing through end-of-life challenges: A comprehensive review for offshore wind," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    16. Yawen Han & Wanli Xing & Hongchang Hao & Xin Du & Chongyang Liu, 2022. "Interprovincial Metal and GHG Transfers Embodied in Electricity Transmission across China: Trends and Driving Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-19, July.
    17. Hosius, Emil & Seebaß, Johann V. & Wacker, Benjamin & Schlüter, Jan Chr., 2023. "The impact of offshore wind energy on Northern European wholesale electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    18. Kikuchi, Yuka & Ishihara, Takeshi, 2023. "Assessment of capital expenditure for fixed-bottom offshore wind farms using probabilistic engineering cost model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    19. Meng, Fantai & Sergiienko, Nataliia & Ding, Boyin & Zhou, Binzhen & Silva, Leandro Souza Pinheiro Da & Cazzolato, Benjamin & Li, Ye, 2023. "Co-located offshore wind–wave energy systems: Can motion suppression and reliable power generation be achieved simultaneously?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    20. Zhang, Lijun & Li, Ye & Xu, Wenhao & Gao, Zhiteng & Fang, Long & Li, Rongfu & Ding, Boyin & Zhao, Bin & Leng, Jun & He, Fenglan, 2022. "Systematic analysis of performance and cost of two floating offshore wind turbines with significant interactions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Levi, Peter G. & Pollitt, Michael G., 2015. "Cost trajectories of low carbon electricity generation technologies in the UK: A study of cost uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 48-59.
    2. Rubio-Domingo, G. & Linares, P., 2021. "The future investment costs of offshore wind: An estimation based on auction results," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Italo Fernandes & Felipe M. Pimenta & Osvaldo R. Saavedra & Arcilan T. Assireu, 2022. "Exploring the Complementarity of Offshore Wind Sites to Reduce the Seasonal Variability of Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-24, September.
    4. Pedersen, Jaap & Weinand, Jann Michael & Syranidou, Chloi & Rehfeldt, Daniel, 2024. "An efficient solver for large-scale onshore wind farm siting including cable routing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 317(2), pages 616-630.
    5. Philipp Beiter & Aubryn Cooperman & Eric Lantz & Tyler Stehly & Matt Shields & Ryan Wiser & Thomas Telsnig & Lena Kitzing & Volker Berkhout & Yuka Kikuchi, 2021. "Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(5), September.
    6. Franklyn Kanyako & Erin Baker, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of the future cost of wind energy on climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Laido, Ahti Simo & Hansen, Tyler A. & Kitzing, Lena, 2024. "The influence of seabed lease fees on offshore wind farm design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    8. Castro-Santos, Laura & Filgueira-Vizoso, Almudena & Carral-Couce, Luis & Formoso, José Ángel Fraguela, 2016. "Economic feasibility of floating offshore wind farms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 868-882.
    9. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2021. "Improving the analytical framework for quantifying technological progress in energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Vetters, Jade & Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Passel, Steven, 2024. "Sailing through end-of-life challenges: A comprehensive review for offshore wind," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    11. Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Wierling, August, 2016. "Offshore wind investments – Realism about cost developments is necessary," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 170-181.
    12. Ayman Al-Quraan & Bashar Al-Mhairat, 2022. "Intelligent Optimized Wind Turbine Cost Analysis for Different Wind Sites in Jordan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, March.
    13. Fouz, D.M. & Carballo, R. & López, I. & González, X.P. & Iglesias, G., 2023. "A methodology for cost-effective analysis of hydrokinetic energy projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    14. Samadi, Sascha, 2018. "The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2346-2364.
    15. Schmitz, Matthias & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Economic Feasibility of Kite-Based Wind Energy Powerships with CAES or Hydrogen Storage," FCN Working Papers 16/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    16. Lenzen, Manfred & McBain, Bonnie & Trainer, Ted & Jütte, Silke & Rey-Lescure, Olivier & Huang, Jing, 2016. "Simulating low-carbon electricity supply for Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 553-564.
    17. Shirizadeh, Behrang & Quirion, Philippe, 2021. "Low-carbon options for the French power sector: What role for renewables, nuclear energy and carbon capture and storage?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    18. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Huang, Tao & Yim, Steve Hung Lam, 2024. "Assessment of urban wind energy resource in Hong Kong based on multi-instrument observations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    19. Torsten Clemens & Martin Hunyadi-Gall & Andreas Lunzer & Vladislav Arekhov & Martin Datler & Albert Gauer, 2024. "Wind–Photovoltaic–Electrolyzer-Underground Hydrogen Storage System for Cost-Effective Seasonal Energy Storage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-26, November.
    20. Shaojie Song & Haiyang Lin & Peter Sherman & Xi Yang & Chris P. Nielsen & Xinyu Chen & Michael B. McElroy, 2021. "Production of hydrogen from offshore wind in China and cost-competitive supply to Japan," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:298:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921006164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.