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Machine learning based very short term load forecasting of machine tools

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  • Dietrich, Bastian
  • Walther, Jessica
  • Weigold, Matthias
  • Abele, Eberhard

Abstract

With the ongoing integration of renewable energies into the electrical power grid, industrial energy flexibility gains importance. To enable demand response applications, knowledge about the future energy demand is necessary. This paper presents a machine learning process to forecast the very short term load of two machine tools, which can be utilized as a decision support basis for control schemes and measures to increase energy flexibility and decrease energy cost in manufacturing. The presented process is developed and evaluated on production machines in a research factory. The results indicate that the developed machine learning process is feasible and creates an accurate very short term load forecasting model for different production machines. It can be used as a blueprint to develop load forecasting models for other production machines using the historic load profile and various machine and process data. A combination of time series features and an Artificial Neural Network proves to be the most robust model regarding the presented machine tools with achieved coefficients of determination between 0.57 and 0.64 for a 100 step forecast. Improvements are still needed regarding the forecasting accuracy, especially of load peaks, for which different measures are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Dietrich, Bastian & Walther, Jessica & Weigold, Matthias & Abele, Eberhard, 2020. "Machine learning based very short term load forecasting of machine tools," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:276:y:2020:i:c:s0306261920309521
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115440
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    1. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Spinelli, Stefano & Vitali, Andrea, 2022. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting through Bayesian Mixture Density Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    2. Henry Ekwaro-Osire & Dennis Bode & Klaus-Dieter Thoben & Jan-Hendrik Ohlendorf, 2022. "Identification of Machine Learning Relevant Energy and Resource Manufacturing Efficiency Levers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Xiwen Cui & Xinyu Guan & Dongyu Wang & Dongxiao Niu & Xiaomin Xu, 2022. "Can China Meet Its 2030 Total Energy Consumption Target? Based on an RF-SSA-SVR-KDE Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Niu, Dongxiao & Ji, Zhengsen & Li, Wanying & Xu, Xiaomin & Liu, Da, 2021. "Research and application of a hybrid model for mid-term power demand forecasting based on secondary decomposition and interval optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    5. Jessica Walther & Matthias Weigold, 2021. "A Systematic Review on Predicting and Forecasting the Electrical Energy Consumption in the Manufacturing Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Li, Lei & Huang, Haihong & Zou, Xiang & Zhao, Fu & Li, Guishan & Liu, Zhifeng, 2021. "An energy-efficient service-oriented energy supplying system and control for multi-machine in the production line," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    7. Hernandez-Matheus, Alejandro & Löschenbrand, Markus & Berg, Kjersti & Fuchs, Ida & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Sumper, Andreas, 2022. "A systematic review of machine learning techniques related to local energy communities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    8. Stefan Ungureanu & Vasile Topa & Andrei Cristinel Cziker, 2021. "Analysis for Non-Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Machine Learning and Statistical Methods with Financial Impact on the Power Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-26, October.
    9. Liu, Jiefeng & Zhang, Zhenhao & Fan, Xianhao & Zhang, Yiyi & Wang, Jiaqi & Zhou, Ke & Liang, Shuo & Yu, Xiaoyong & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Power system load forecasting using mobility optimization and multi-task learning in COVID-19," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).

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