Strategic planning for utility-scale solar photovoltaic development – Historical peak events revisited

Rapidly growing utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) holds promise for addressing the energy and environmental challenges posed by high electricity demand days (HEDDs). We assessed the implications on strategic planning of future solar development in an emerging solar market, New York State (NYS) in the U.S., by synthesizing information on electrical infrastructure, tax assessment, geographical constraints and measured meteorological data. Considering three solar PV penetration scenarios (4500 MW, 6000 MW, and 9000 MW), we examined the impact of distributed utility-scale solar farms on peak demand reduction and ramping requirements during historical peak events. Our results reiterate that, across NYS, a wealth of low-value land exists to support utility-scale solar PV and that generation from these resources can reduce peak demand by up to 9.6% under the 9000 MW scenario. In addition, peak demand reduction displays locational and temporal dependency. Contingent upon local meteorology, a solar farm can reduce demand during the peak hour by anywhere between 10 and 74% of its rated capacity during summer HEDDs. However, the highest ramping requirements are more likely to occur during winter than summer. Furthermore, because developers cannot predict performance during the annual system peak, current capacity valuation methodologies for solar projects may not be adequate to promote a healthy competitive market for solar. Incorporating a broader spectrum of peak demand conditions into variable resource capacity valuation would improve strategic planning, not only in NYS, but across growing solar markets worldwide.