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Modeling India’s energy future using a bottom-up approach

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  • de la Rue du Can, Stephane
  • Khandekar, Aditya
  • Abhyankar, Nikit
  • Phadke, Amol
  • Khanna, Nina Zheng
  • Fridley, David
  • Zhou, Nan

Abstract

India and China are the world’s most populous nations, but they have experienced a very different pattern of economic development. As a result, India currently contributes less than one-quarter of the amount of China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, India’s forecasted economic growth suggests that those emissions will almost quadruple, with much of this rise coming from the industry sector. Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming suggest that direct CO2 emissions should decrease significantly, but leave unanswered the question of how this can be achieved by real-world policies. This study describes a bottom-up model that can be used to assess the impacts of emissions mitigation policies and the linkages between the physical drivers and energy growth of India’s key industries. It focuses on capturing the main physical drivers of this growth, to identify and prioritize the subsectors to address and develop sustainable, low carbon pathways to support economic growth. This analysis shows that India can achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) while achieving substantial economic growth using its currently planned policies. The study describes in detail the methodology and underlying assumptions that are needed by policy makers to inform targeted policy interventions and provide a baseline scenario in the case of no major new technology breakthroughs and no new adopted policies.

Suggested Citation

  • de la Rue du Can, Stephane & Khandekar, Aditya & Abhyankar, Nikit & Phadke, Amol & Khanna, Nina Zheng & Fridley, David & Zhou, Nan, 2019. "Modeling India’s energy future using a bottom-up approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1108-1125.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:238:y:2019:i:c:p:1108-1125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.065
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    6. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Sugiyama, Minami & Nishimoto, Ryuya & Momonoki, Takashi, 2021. "Evaluating decarbonization scenarios and energy management requirement for the residential sector in Japan through bottom-up simulations of energy end-use demand in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    7. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2021. "Low carbon electricity system for India in 2030 based on multi-objective multi-criteria assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Kumar, Vinod Vijay & Shastri, Yogendra & Hoadley, Andrew, 2020. "A consequence analysis study of natural gas consumption in a developing country: Case of India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Kumar, Pankaj & Banerjee, Rangan & Mishra, Trupti, 2020. "A framework for analyzing trade-offs in cost and emissions in power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
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    11. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2021. "Cost optimal combinations of storage technologies for maximizing renewable integration in Indian power system by 2040: Multi-region approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 233-247.

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