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Prospects for grid-connected solar PV in Kenya: A systems approach

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  • Rose, Amy
  • Stoner, Robert
  • Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio

Abstract

Capacity planners in developing countries frequently use screening curves and other system-independent metrics such as levelized cost of energy to guide investment decisions. This can lead to spurious conclusions about intermittent power sources such as solar and wind whose value may depend strongly on the characteristics of the system in which they are installed, including the overall generation mix and consumption patterns. We use a system-level optimization model for Kenya to evaluate the potential to use grid-connected solar PV in combination with existing reservoir hydropower to displace diesel generation. Different generation mixes in the years 2012 and 2017 are tested with a unit commitment model. Our results show that the value of high penetrations of solar in 2012 exceeds expected payments from the national feed-in-tariff. Under two 2017 generation mix and demand scenarios, the value of solar remains high if planned investments in low-cost geothermal, imported hydro, and wind power are delayed. Our system-scale methodology can be used to estimate the potential for intermittent renewable generation in other African countries with large reservoir hydro capacities or where there is a significant opportunity to displace costly diesel generation.

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  • Rose, Amy & Stoner, Robert & Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio, 2016. "Prospects for grid-connected solar PV in Kenya: A systems approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 583-590.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:161:y:2016:i:c:p:583-590
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.07.052
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    2. Kanyarusoke, Kant E. & Gryzagoridis, Jasson & Oliver, Graeme, 2016. "Re-mapping sub-Sahara Africa for equipment selection to photo electrify energy poor homes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 240-250.
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    6. Dominic Samoita & Charles Nzila & Poul Alberg Østergaard & Arne Remmen, 2020. "Barriers and Solutions for Increasing the Integration of Solar Photovoltaic in Kenya’s Electricity Mix," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-17, October.
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    8. Ryan, Lisa & Dillon, Joseph & Monaca, Sarah La & Byrne, Julie & O'Malley, Mark, 2016. "Assessing the system and investor value of utility-scale solar PV," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 506-517.
    9. de la Hoz, Jordi & Martín, Helena & Miret, Jaume & Castilla, Miguel & Guzman, Ramon, 2016. "Evaluating the 2014 retroactive regulatory framework applied to the grid connected PV systems in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 329-344.
    10. Qu, Minglu & Yan, Xufeng & Wang, Haiyang & Hei, Yingxiao & Liu, Hongzhi & Li, Zhao, 2022. "Energy, exergy, economic and environmental analysis of photovoltaic/thermal integrated water source heat pump water heater," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 1084-1097.
    11. Spittler, Nathalie & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Shafiei, Ehsan & Diemer, Arnaud, 2021. "Implications of renewable resource dynamics for energy system planning: The case of geothermal and hydropower in Kenya," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Lai, Chun Sing & McCulloch, Malcolm D., 2017. "Levelized cost of electricity for solar photovoltaic and electrical energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 191-203.
    13. Lai, Chun Sing & Locatelli, Giorgio & Pimm, Andrew & Tao, Yingshan & Li, Xuecong & Lai, Loi Lei, 2019. "A financial model for lithium-ion storage in a photovoltaic and biogas energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Purohit, Ishan & Purohit, Pallav, 2018. "Performance assessment of grid-interactive solar photovoltaic projects under India’s national solar mission," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 25-41.
    15. Deetjen, Thomas A. & Garrison, Jared B. & Rhodes, Joshua D. & Webber, Michael E., 2016. "Solar PV integration cost variation due to array orientation and geographic location in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 607-616.
    16. Chia-Nan Wang & Yu-Chi Chung & Fajar Dwi Wibowo & Thanh-Tuan Dang & Ngoc-Ai-Thy Nguyen, 2023. "Site Selection of Solar Power Plants Using Hybrid MCDM Models: A Case Study in Indonesia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    17. Trotter, Philipp A. & McManus, Marcelle C. & Maconachie, Roy, 2017. "Electricity planning and implementation in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1189-1209.
    18. Muttqi, Kashem M. & Aghaei, Jamshid & Askarpour, Mohammad & Ganapathy, Velappa, 2017. "Minimizing the steady-state impediments to solar photovoltaics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1329-1345.
    19. Jurasz, Jakub & Ciapała, Bartłomiej, 2017. "Integrating photovoltaics into energy systems by using a run-off-river power plant with pondage to smooth energy exchange with the power gird," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 21-35.
    20. Kanwal, S. & Khan, B. & Ali, S.M. & Mehmood, C.A., 2018. "Gaussian process regression based inertia emulation and reserve estimation for grid interfaced photovoltaic system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 865-875.
    21. Alberto Bocca & Luca Bergamasco & Matteo Fasano & Lorenzo Bottaccioli & Eliodoro Chiavazzo & Alberto Macii & Pietro Asinari, 2018. "Multiple-Regression Method for Fast Estimation of Solar Irradiation and Photovoltaic Energy Potentials over Europe and Africa," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
    22. Chen, Hongbing & Zhang, Lei & Jie, Pengfei & Xiong, Yaxuan & Xu, Peng & Zhai, Huixing, 2017. "Performance study of heat-pipe solar photovoltaic/thermal heat pump system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 960-980.
    23. Kariuki, Boniface Wainaina & Sato, Tomonori, 2018. "Interannual and spatial variability of solar radiation energy potential in Kenya using Meteosat satellite," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 88-96.

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