IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/apmaco/v429y2022ics0096300322003307.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the impact of civilian firearm ownership in the evolution of violent crimes

Author

Listed:
  • Crokidakis, Nuno

Abstract

We propose a simple mathematical model to describe the evolution of violent crimes. For such purpose, we built a model based on ordinary differential equations that take into account the number of violent crimes and the number of legal and illegal guns. The dynamics is governed by probabilities, modeling for example the police action, the risk perception regarding crimes that leads to increase of ownership of legal guns, and so on. Our analytical and numerical results show that, in addition to the rise of criminality due to the presence of illegal guns, the increase of legal guns leads to a fast increase of violent crimes, suggesting that the access of firearms by civilians is not a good option regarding the control of crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Crokidakis, Nuno, 2022. "Modeling the impact of civilian firearm ownership in the evolution of violent crimes," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:429:y:2022:i:c:s0096300322003307
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2022.127256
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0096300322003307
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.amc.2022.127256?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siegel, M. & Ross, C.S. & King III, C., 2013. "The relationship between gun ownership and firearm homicide rates in the United States, 1981-2010," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 103(11), pages 2098-2105.
    2. Siegel, M. & Negussie, Y. & Vanture, S. & Pleskunas, J. & Ross, C.S. & King, C., III, 2014. "The relationship between gun ownership and stranger and nonstranger firearm homicide rates in the United States, 1981-2010," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 104(10), pages 1912-1919.
    3. Hamlin, Daniel, 2021. "Are gun ownership rates and regulations associated with firearm incidents in American schools? A forty-year analysis (1980–2019)," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Monteiro, L.H.A., 2020. "More guns, less crime? A dynamical systems approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    5. Pritam, Kocherlakota Satya & Sugandha, & Mathur, Trilok & Agarwal, Shivi, 2021. "Underlying dynamics of crime transmission with memory," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Bree J. Lang & Matthew Lang, 2021. "Pandemics, Protests, and Firearms," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(2), pages 131-163.
    7. Kleck, Gary, 2015. "The Impact of Gun Ownership Rates on Crime Rates: A Methodological Review of the Evidence," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 40-48.
    8. Taylor, Benjamin & Li, Jing, 2015. "Do fewer guns lead to less crime? Evidence from Australia," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-78.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sooknanan, Joanna & Seemungal, Terence A.R., 2023. "Criminals and their models - a review of epidemiological models describing criminal behaviour," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).
    2. Crokidakis, Nuno, 2024. "Nonequilibrium phase transitions and absorbing states in a model for the dynamics of religious affiliation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 643(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matthew Lang, 2016. "State Firearm Sales and Criminal Activity: Evidence from Firearm Background Checks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 45-68, July.
    2. Jessica Jumee Kim & Kenneth C. Wilbur, 2022. "Proxies for legal firearm prevalence," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 239-273, September.
    3. Hamlin, Daniel, 2021. "Are gun ownership rates and regulations associated with firearm incidents in American schools? A forty-year analysis (1980–2019)," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Kim, Dae-Young & Phillips, Scott W., 2021. "When COVID-19 and guns meet: A rise in shootings," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Pritam, Kocherlakota Satya & Sugandha, & Mathur, Trilok & Agarwal, Shivi, 2021. "Underlying dynamics of crime transmission with memory," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Patrick Duenow & Luke B. Connelly, 2024. "The effect of gun buy‐back law reform on homicides and suicides in Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 248-279, February.
    7. Adelaide Baronchelli & Raul Caruso & Roberto Ricciuti, 2022. "Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons: Are embargoes effective?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1336-1361, May.
    8. Johnson, Blair T. & Sisti, Anthony & Bernstein, Mary & Chen, Kun & Hennessy, Emily A. & Acabchuk, Rebecca L. & Matos, Michaela, 2021. "Community-level factors and incidence of gun violence in the United States, 2014–2017," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    9. Pak, Tae-Young, 2022. "The effects of mass shootings on gun sales: Motivations, mechanisms, policies and regulations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1148-1164.
    10. Schiff, Maurice, 2019. "Greater US Gun Ownership, Lethality and Murder Rates: Analysis and Policy Proposals," GLO Discussion Paper Series 421, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Chalak, Karim & Kim, Daniel & Miller, Megan & Pepper, John, 2022. "Reexamining the evidence on gun ownership and homicide using proxy measures of ownership," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    12. Laura H Gunn & Enrique ter Horst & Talar W Markossian & German Molina, 2018. "Online interest regarding violent attacks, gun control, and gun purchase: A causal analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, November.
    13. Bansal, Komal & Mathur, Trilok & Agarwal, Shivi, 2023. "Fractional-order crime propagation model with non-linear transmission rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    14. S. E. Costanza & Ronald Helms & John C. Kilburn & David A. Bowers, 2020. "Criminal Threat, Immigrant/Minority Threat, and Political Ideology: An Examination of Handgun Permits Across Texas Counties," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1442-1460, July.
    15. Lackner, Mario & Sunde, Uwe & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2021. "Covid-19 and the Forces Behind Social Unrest," IHS Working Paper Series 37, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    16. Seiffert, Sebastian Daniel & Kukharskyy, Bohdan, 2016. "Gun Violence in the US: Correlates and Causes," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145946, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. David Yamane, 2022. "Gun Culture 2.0: The Evolution and Contours of Defensive Gun Ownership in America," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 704(1), pages 20-43, November.
    18. Kleck, Gary, 2015. "The Impact of Gun Ownership Rates on Crime Rates: A Methodological Review of the Evidence," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 40-48.
    19. Christoph Koenig & David Schindler, 2023. "Impulse Purchases, Gun Ownership, and Homicides: Evidence from a Firearm Demand Shock," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1271-1286, September.
    20. Marco Rogna & Bich Diep Nguyen, 2022. "Firearms law and fatal police shootings: a panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(27), pages 3121-3137, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:429:y:2022:i:c:s0096300322003307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/applied-mathematics-and-computation .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.