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More guns, less crime? A dynamical systems approach

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  • Monteiro, L.H.A.

Abstract

The laws regulating the ownership and use of firearms by civilians have been debated in several countries. The debate arises because the relations among firearm accessibility, right to self-defense, firearm-related mortality, and violent crime statistics can suggest divergent strategies to combat criminality. Here, a model written in terms of differential equations is proposed to answer the question: do more legal guns mean less crime committed by illegal guns? From this model, the impact of distinct gun-control policies on the rate of gun-related crimes is investigated. It is analytically shown that strong gun-control leads to the minimum number of illegal guns; however, this policy does not assure a crime-free society. Weak gun-control can lead to a crime-free society; however, this policy requires the maximum number of legal guns in the hands of the civil society.

Suggested Citation

  • Monteiro, L.H.A., 2020. "More guns, less crime? A dynamical systems approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 369(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:369:y:2020:i:c:s0096300319307969
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2019.124804
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dominik Wodarz & Natalia L Komarova, 2013. "Dependence of the Firearm-Related Homicide Rate on Gun Availability: A Mathematical Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-13, July.
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    3. David Fortunato, 2015. "Can Easing Concealed Carry Deter Crime?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1071-1085, December.
    4. Oliveira Cristiano & Balbinotto Neto Giácomo, 2015. "The Deterrence Effects of Gun Laws in Games with Asymmetric Skills and Information," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 435-452, November.
    5. Topher L. McDougal & David A. Shirk & Robert Muggah & John H. Patterson, 2015. "The Way of the Gun: Estimating Firearms Trafficking across the US–Mexico Border," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 297-327.
    6. Taylor, Benjamin & Li, Jing, 2015. "Do fewer guns lead to less crime? Evidence from Australia," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-78.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pritam, Kocherlakota Satya & Sugandha, & Mathur, Trilok & Agarwal, Shivi, 2021. "Underlying dynamics of crime transmission with memory," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Crokidakis, Nuno, 2022. "Modeling the impact of civilian firearm ownership in the evolution of violent crimes," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).

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