Implications of precipitation patterns and antecedent soil water content for leaching of pesticides from arable land

An improved understanding of how precipitation patterns control pesticide leaching from structured soils prone to macropore flow could lead to practical mitigation strategies that would help farmers minimize losses by optimizing application timings. A sensitivity analysis of the macropore flow model MACRO was therefore carried out to examine the influence of antecedent soil water content and precipitation patterns on pesticide leaching to drainage systems and groundwater. One thousand model runs were executed (20 four-year weather data series, 50 application dates per season) for both autumn and spring applications of a hypothetical moderately sorbed and quickly degraded herbicide for one of three national scenarios for pesticide risk assessment in Sweden (Näsbygård, a loamy moraine soil in Scania, southern Sweden). Rapid and direct transport of pesticides in macropores to drainage systems and shallow groundwater was predicted to occur rather infrequently in spring (in 4 of the 20 years) and even more rarely in autumn. For autumn applications, the soil water deficit at application (SWDtot) and medium-term precipitation (30-90 days after application) were the two most sensitive variables controlling pesticide leaching. For spring applications, total leaching was most closely linked to rainfall the following winter, while short-term precipitation (5 days after application) and the antecedent soil water deficit were the two most important predictors for maximum pesticide concentrations in drainflow. The potential for reducing leaching by restricting applications to periods of low risk was investigated. The results showed that avoiding applications on wet soil in autumn could potentially reduce total pesticide losses by a factor of two to three. Similarly, the risk of acute toxicological effects in surface waters following pesticide applications in spring could be reduced by a factor of 2-3 by avoiding application when 5-day weather forecasts predict precipitation >10mm.