Agricultural water rebound effect and its driving factors in Xinjiang, China

The urgent need to reduce agricultural water consumption and tackle water scarcity has made developing water-saving technologies in agriculture a top priority. However, However, introducing these technologies does not automatically guarantee a reduction in overall water consumption within the sector. The rebound effect plays a significant role in limiting the effectiveness of water conservation policies. A comprehensive understanding of irrigation's water rebound effect (WRE) is essential for successfully conserving agricultural water resources, especially in arid regions. This study focuses on Xinjiang and empirically analyzes the rebound effect following the implementation of water-saving measures. This study focuses on Xinjiang and empirically analyzes the rebound effect following the implementation of water-saving measures. The findings indicate that from 2001 to 2020, water consumption remained a concern despite advancements in irrigation technology, leading to a 40.86 % reduction in the irrigation quota (a decrease of 5567.12 m³/ha). The cultivated land area, irrigation area, water-saving irrigation area, agricultural output value, agricultural water consumption, and agricultural water use productivity in Xinjiang have increased by 2.86 × 106 ha, 1.40 × 106 ha, 1.70 × 106 ha, 81.61 × 109 CNY, 6.28 × 109 m3 and 1.57 CNY/m3, respectively, with growth rates of 83.54 %, 41.27 %, 134.24 %, 217.87, 7.80 % and 192.83 %, respectively. Despite the reduced water allocation per hectare for irrigation, the anticipated decline in total water consumption did not occur, revealing a significant rebound effect, with variations ranging from 64.84 % to 1972.51 %. This indicates that a single water-saving measure may not ensure long-term water conservation. A deeper analysis of this rebound effect can help formulate more effective water management strategies. Strategies should encompass promoting ongoing advancements in water-saving technologies, imposing restrictions on expanding the cultivated land in certain areas, decreasing the cultivation of high-yield and high-water-demand crops, curbing the extension of irrigation coverage, enhancing the establishment of agricultural water pricing mechanisms, integrating smart irrigation technologies and data-driven water resource management, enhancing the utilization of saline-alkaline water, and driving policy innovation. The findings can help enhance agricultural water use efficiency, supporting agricultural production and regional economic development. This not only aids in improving agricultural water management in Xinjiang but also provides valuable insights for other arid and semi-arid regions. These insights can aid in creating more efficient water resource management strategies, reducing the negative impacts of the WRE, and advancing global agricultural sustainability and innovation in water management.