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Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Author

Listed:
  • Aijun Guo

    (School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Rong Zhang

    (School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Xiaoyu Song

    (Institute of County Economic Development, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    Institute of Rural Revitalization Strategy, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Fanglei Zhong

    (School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Daiwei Jiang

    (School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Yuan Song

    (Gansu Meteorological Information and Technical Equipment Support Center, Lanzhou 730020, China)

Abstract

The rebound effect exists widely in the fields of energy, irrigation, and other resource utilizations. Previous studies have predicted the evolution of different resource utilizations under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), but it is still unclear whether total water use has a rebound effect. This study uses the SSPs as the basic prediction framework and evaluates the water resources and economic status of the provinces in China using the hydro-economic (HE) classification method. Then, combined with the SSPs scenario setting parameters, the conditional convergence model and the method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) are used to simulate the changes in water use efficiency of the different provinces in China under different scenarios. Based on the future GDP forecast data of China’s provinces, combined with the forecast of water use efficiency changes, the total water use changes in China’s 31 provinces under different pathways from 2016 to 2030 are calculated. Among them, the future GDP data is predicted based on the Cobb–Douglas production function and SSPs scenario settings. Using a comprehensive evaluation of the evolution of the efficiency and the total amount, this study reveals whether there is a rebound effect. The results showed that with the continuous growth in the water use efficiency, the total water use had a “U” type trend, which indicated that there was a rebound effect in the total water use of China under the different SSPs. Based on this information, this study proposes some suggestions for irrigation water-saving technologies and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Aijun Guo & Rong Zhang & Xiaoyu Song & Fanglei Zhong & Daiwei Jiang & Yuan Song, 2021. "Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:3:p:1326-:d:491328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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