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A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

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  • Rodriguez, Daniel
  • Cox, Howard
  • deVoil, Peter
  • Power, Brendan

Abstract

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.

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  • Rodriguez, Daniel & Cox, Howard & deVoil, Peter & Power, Brendan, 2014. "A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 50-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:126:y:2014:i:c:p:50-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.04.003
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    1. Williams, Allyson & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Kouadio, Louis & Power, Brendan & Marcussen, Torben & McRae, David & Cockfield, Geoff, 2018. "An investigation of farm-scale adaptation options for cotton production in the face of future climate change and water allocation policies in southern Queensland, Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 124-132.
    2. Andrieu, N. & Blundo-Canto, G. & Cruz-Garcia, G.S., 2019. "Trade-offs between food security and forest exploitation by mestizo households in Ucayali, Peruvian Amazon," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 64-77.
    3. Ghahramani, Afshin & Moore, Andrew D., 2016. "Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 142-155.
    4. Andrieu, Nadine & Descheemaeker, Katrien & Sanou, Thierry & Chia, Eduardo, 2015. "Effects of technical interventions on flexibility of farming systems in Burkina Faso: Lessons for the design of innovations in West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 125-137.
    5. Brown, Peter R. & Bridle, Kerry L. & Crimp, Steven J., 2016. "Assessing the capacity of Australian broadacre mixed farmers to adapt to climate change: Identifying constraints and opportunities," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 129-141.
    6. Andrieu, N. & Sogoba, B. & Zougmore, R. & Howland, F. & Samake, O. & Bonilla-Findji, O. & Lizarazo, M. & Nowak, A. & Dembele, C. & Corner-Dolloff, C., 2017. "Prioritizing investments for climate-smart agriculture: Lessons learned from Mali," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 13-24.
    7. Rodriguez, D & de Voil, P & Rufino, MC & Odendo, M & van Wijk, MT, 2017. "To mulch or to munch? Big modelling of big data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 32-42.
    8. Snow, Val & Rodriguez, Daniel & Dynes, Robyn & Kaye-Blake, William & Mallawaarachchi, Thilak & Zydenbos, Sue & Cong, Lei & Obadovic, Irena & Agnew, Rob & Amery, Nicole & Bell, Lindsay & Benson, Cristy, 2021. "Resilience achieved via multiple compensating subsystems: The immediate impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the agri-food systems of Australia and New Zealand," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    9. Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin & Liu, De Li & Farquharson, Robert & Macadam, Ian & Abadi, Amir & Finlayson, John & Wang, Bin & Ramilan, Thiagarajah, 2015. "Climate change impacts on phenology and yields of five broadacre crops at four climatologically distinct locations in Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 133-144.
    10. Rigolot, C. & de Voil, P. & Douxchamps, S. & Prestwidge, D. & Van Wijk, M. & Thornton, P.K. & Rodriguez, D. & Henderson, B. & Medina, D. & Herrero, M., 2017. "Interactions between intervention packages, climatic risk, climate change and food security in mixed crop–livestock systems in Burkina Faso," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 217-224.
    11. Kenny, Daniel C., 2017. "Modeling of natural and social capital on farms: Toward useable integration," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 356(C), pages 1-13.
    12. De Lapparent, Alice & Sabatier, Rodolphe & Paut, Raphaël & Martin, Sophie, 2023. "Perennial transitions from market gardening towards mixed fruit tree - vegetable systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    13. Neal Hughes & Michael Lu & Wei Ying Soh & Kenton Lawson, 2022. "Modelling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian farms," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-22, May.

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