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Evaluation of effects of cotton policy changes on land and water use in Uzbekistan: Application of a bio-economic farm model at the level of a water users association

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  • Djanibekov, Nodir
  • Sommer, Rolf
  • Djanibekov, Utkur

Abstract

Various agricultural policies have been implemented in post-Soviet countries as they move from centrally planned to market economies. In the agriculture sector of Uzbekistan, Central Asia, several reforms have been implemented to increase the operational autonomy of agricultural producers. However, land and water use in agriculture remains directly linked to the centrally regulated cotton production. Still partly resembling the design of the state orders imposed during the planned economy, cotton production policy is used to ensure the stability of national export revenues at the expense of farm incomes. In this paper we argue that modifying the cotton policy may improve the situation with farm incomes and food production, and reduce pressure on water resources, the availability of which in Central Asia is expected to decrease. To conduct an ex ante analysis of cotton policy modifications intended to improve rural incomes, a bio-economic optimization model was developed at the level of a water users association in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. Policy simulations showed that abolishing the current cotton policy would be a more economically attractive option for farmers and also increase grain production rather than various forms of this policy modification. However, abolishing the current cotton policy can present pressure on irrigation water resources as farmers would opt to cultivate water-intensive crops, thus requiring supplemental policies and institutions for sustainable resources use.

Suggested Citation

  • Djanibekov, Nodir & Sommer, Rolf & Djanibekov, Utkur, 2013. "Evaluation of effects of cotton policy changes on land and water use in Uzbekistan: Application of a bio-economic farm model at the level of a water users association," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:118:y:2013:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.02.004
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    2. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2015. "The effects of variability under farm land consolidation process: A perspective of cotton-growing farmers in Uzbekistan," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211829, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Berg, Ernst & Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer & Martius, Christopher & Lamers, John P.A., 2016. "Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13, pages 19-30.
    4. Bhaduri, Anik & Djanibekov, Nodir, 2015. "Adoption of Water-Efficient Technology: Role of Water Price Flexibility, Tenure Uncerntainty and Production Targets in Uzbekistan," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211336, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Chopin, Pierre & Doré, Thierry & Guindé, Loïc & Blazy, Jean-Marc, 2015. "MOSAICA: A multi-scale bioeconomic model for the design and ex ante assessment of cropping system mosaics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 26-39.
    6. Mori-Clement, Yadira & Bhaduri, Anik & Djanibekov, Nodir, 2014. "Food price fluctuations in Uzbekistan: Evidences from local markets in 2002-2010," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183091, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Djanibekov, Utkur & Khamzina, Asia & Villamor, Grace B. & Lamers, John P.A., 2013. "Economic analysis of afforestation of marginal croplands in Uzbekistan," International Conference and Young Researchers Forum - Natural Resource Use in Central Asia: Institutional Challenges and the Contribution of Capacity Building 159089, University of Giessen (JLU Giessen), Center for International Development and Environmental Research.
    8. Mirzabaev, A. & Strokov, A. & Krasilnikov, P., 2018. "The impact of land degradation on agricultural profits and poverty in Central Asia," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277449, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Djanibekov, Nodir & Djanibekov, Utkur & Sommer, Rolf & Petrick, Martin, 2015. "Cooperative agricultural production to exploit individual heterogeneity under a delivery target: The case of cotton in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1-13.
    10. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Aw-Hassan, Aden, 2014. "Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 188, pages 245-255.

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