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Farmers use intuition to reinvent analytic decision support for managing seasonal climatic variability

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  • McCown, R.L.
  • Carberry, P.S.
  • Dalgliesh, N.P.
  • Foale, M.A.
  • Hochman, Z.

Abstract

The FARMSCAPE Information System emerged in a long-running research program aimed at making simulation models useful to Australian farmers in managing climatic variability. This paper is about how well it has worked. This is reported in relation to two standards: (1) the value to thinking and action expressed by farmers and their consultants, (2) correspondence with theory about learning and judgement in uncertain external environments. The former utilises recorded narrative interviews with participants over many years. The latter uses a cognitive framework drawn from theory of judgment and decision making featuring the relationship between intuition and analysis (McCown, 2011).

Suggested Citation

  • McCown, R.L. & Carberry, P.S. & Dalgliesh, N.P. & Foale, M.A. & Hochman, Z., 2012. "Farmers use intuition to reinvent analytic decision support for managing seasonal climatic variability," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 33-45.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:106:y:2012:i:1:p:33-45
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2011.10.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
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    4. Carberry, P. S. & Hochman, Z. & McCown, R. L. & Dalgliesh, N. P. & Foale, M. A. & Poulton, P. L. & Hargreaves, J. N. G. & Hargreaves, D. M. G. & Cawthray, S. & Hillcoat, N. & Robertson, M. J., 2002. "The FARMSCAPE approach to decision support: farmers', advisers', researchers' monitoring, simulation, communication and performance evaluation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 141-177, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hochman, Zvi & Horan, Heidi & Reddy, D. Raji & Sreenivas, Gade & Tallapragada, Chiranjeevi & Adusumilli, Ravindra & Gaydon, Don & Singh, Kamalesh K. & Roth, Christian H., 2017. "Smallholder farmers managing climate risk in India: 1. Adapting to a variable climate," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 54-66.
    2. Malik, Wafa & Dechmi, Farida, 2019. "DSSAT modelling for best irrigation management practices assessment under Mediterranean conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 27-43.
    3. Fabian Weckesser & Michael Beck & Kurt-Jürgen Hülsbergen & Sebastian Peisl, 2022. "A Digital Advisor Twin for Crop Nitrogen Management," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, February.

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