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The effect of parameter uncertainty on whole-field nitrogen recommendations from nitrogen-rich strips and ramped strips in winter wheat

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  • Roberts, David C.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade
  • Solie, John B.
  • Raun, William R.

Abstract

This paper estimates the relative profitability of using optical reflectance-based measures to predict crop needs for topdress nitrogen application to hard red winter wheat (Triticum aestivum). The data are from nitrogen yield response experiments where midseason optical reflectance data were recorded. Both nitrogen-rich strips and ramped strips are considered. Unlike past research, optimal nitrogen recommendations are calculated with and without accounting for parameter uncertainty. The expected profit-maximizing strategy is to follow the historical extension advice of applying 90 kg ha-1 preplant nitrogen using anhydrous ammonia. This strategy is more profitable than the best optical reflectance-based prediction system by $18.74 ha-1. When anhydrous ammonia is unavailable and preplant nitrogen must be applied as dry urea, the extension recommendation and the optical reflectance-based predictors are not significantly different. Ramped strips are no better than nitrogen-rich strips. Accounting for estimation uncertainty in the parameters increases expected profit by about $10 ha-1.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberts, David C. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Solie, John B. & Raun, William R., 2011. "The effect of parameter uncertainty on whole-field nitrogen recommendations from nitrogen-rich strips and ramped strips in winter wheat," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(4), pages 307-314, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:104:y:2011:i:4:p:307-314
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    Cited by:

    1. Boyer, Christopher N. & Larson, James A. & Roberts, Roland K. & McClure, Angela T. & Tyler, Donald D. & Zhou, Vivian, 2013. "Stochastic Corn Yield Response Functions to Nitrogen for Corn after Corn, Corn after Cotton, and Corn after Soybeans," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 669-681, November.
    2. Boyer, Christopher N. & Larson, James A. & Roberts, Roland K. & McClure, Angela T. & Tyler, Donald D., 2014. "The impact of field size and energy cost on the profitability of supplemental corn irrigation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 61-69.
    3. Tumusiime, Emmanuel & Brorsen, B. Wade & Mosali, Jagadeesh & Johnson, Jim & Locke, James & Biermacher, Jon T., 2011. "Determining Optimal Levels of Nitrogen Fertilizer Using Random Parameter Models," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1-12, November.
    4. Brorsen, B. Wade, 2013. "Using Bayesian Estimation and Decision Theory to Determine the Optimal Level of Nitrogen in Cotton," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142951, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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