IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2023-06-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of World Oil Price on Türkiye’s Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Nigar Huseynli

    (Department of Business Administration, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, Azerbaijan.)

Abstract

Oil prices are used in international markets both as one of the key prices and as an indicator price for other energy sources other than oil. Especially in developing oil importing countries like Turkey, the relationship of this important input with the exchange rate has always been an interesting research topic. In this study, the relationship between oil prices and nominal exchange rate in Turkey is examined by causality tests using daily data set (total 5168 observations) for the period of 3 April 2013-3 April 2023. The findings obtained from the analyzes indicate the existence of a unilateral causality relationship between the variables. This positive relationship indicates that there is a causality running from oil prices to the exchange rate. On the other hand, there was no causal relationship from exchange rate to oil prices. The results obtained show similar results with such articles made before in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigar Huseynli, 2023. "The Effect of World Oil Price on Türkiye’s Exchange Rate," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 304-310, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-06-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/14479/7568
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/14479
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Altinay, Galip & Karagol, Erdal, 2005. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 849-856, November.
    6. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995. "The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Oct), pages 21-38.
    9. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
    12. Bahman Huseynli, 2023. "Causality Relationship between the Development of the Oil and Gas Sector and Foreign Investments," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 404-409, March.
    13. Lv, Xin & Lien, Donald & Chen, Qian & Yu, Chang, 2018. "Does exchange rate management affect the causality between exchange rates and oil prices? Evidence from oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 325-343.
    14. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
    15. Bwo-Nung Huang & Chi-Chuan Lee & Yu-Fang Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2021. "Dynamic linkage between oil prices and exchange rates: new global evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 719-742, August.
    16. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chen, Hung-Chyn, 2007. "Oil prices and real exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 390-404, May.
    17. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Oil price and exchange rate in India: Fresh evidence from continuous wavelet approach and asymmetric, multi-horizon Granger-causality tests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 272-283.
    18. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jung, Young Cheol & Das, Anupam & McFarlane, Adian, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between the oil price and the US-Canada exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 198-206.
    2. Jiang, Yong & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Narayan, Seema & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2022. "Heterogeneity dependence between oil prices and exchange rate: Evidence from a parametric test of Granger causality in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    4. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Muñoz, M. Pilar & Dickey, David A., 2009. "Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 857-866, November.
    6. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Debi P Bal & Badri N Rath, 2019. "Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India - A Reassessment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 592-604.
    8. Chen, George S. & Yao, Yao & Malizard, Julien, 2017. "Does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in China? The effect of entry mode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-419.
    9. Ebenezer, Appiah Collins & Jatoe, John Baptist D. & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi, 2018. "Food Price Sensitivity To Changes In Petroleum Price And Exchange Rate In Ghana: A Cointegration Analysis," 2018 Conference (2nd), August 8-11, Kumasi, Ghana 277791, Ghana Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Hemachandra Padhan & Deepak Kumar Behera & Santosh Kumar Sahu & Umakant Dash, 2023. "Does Corruption Hinderance Economic Growth Despite Surge of Remittance and Capital Inflows Since Economic Liberalization in an Emerging Economy, India," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 426-449, March.
    11. Juan Manuel Julio-Román & Fredy Gamboa-Estrada, 2019. "The Exchange Rate and Oil Prices in Colombia: A High Frequency Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1091, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Maud Korley & Evangelos Giouvris, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price and Oil Volatility Index (OVX) on the Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Oil Importing/Exporting Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    13. Ogunmola, Omotoso Oluseye & Verter, Nahanga & Obayelu, Abiodun Elijah, 2023. "Factors Influencing the Prices of Rice, Maize and Wheat Prices in Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 15(1), January.
    14. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Defence Expenditures And Gdp In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-385.
    15. Kakali Kanjilal, 2014. "Rational expectation hypothesis: empirical evidence from government debt market in India," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 353-370.
    16. Sohag, Kazi & Begum, Rawshan Ara & Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed & Jaafar, Mokhtar, 2015. "Dynamics of energy use, technological innovation, economic growth and trade openness in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1497-1507.
    17. Sadaf Majeed & Syed Faizan Iftikhar & Zeeshan Atiq, 2019. "Modeling the impact of banking sector credit on growth performance: An empirical evidence of credit to household and enterprise in Pakistan," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-17, June.
    18. Kakali Kanjilal & Sajal Ghosh, 2018. "Revisiting income and price elasticity of gasoline demand in India: new evidence from cointegration tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1869-1888, December.
    19. Hamid Baghestani & Bassam M. AbuAl-Foul, 2019. "Dynamics between Oil Prices and UAE Effective Exchange Rates: An Empirical Examination," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 16, pages 89-103, May.
    20. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2014. "Income and price elasticity of gold import demand in India: Empirical evidence from threshold and ARDL bounds test cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-142.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Economics; Oil Price; Exchange Rate; Türkiye;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-06-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.