IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2023-01-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Covid-19 on Oil Market Returns: Has Market Efficiency Being Violated?

Author

Listed:
  • Clement Moyo

    (Nelson Mandela University, South Africa.)

  • Izunna Anyikwa

    (Nelson Mandela University, South Africa.)

  • Andrew Phiri

    (Nelson Mandela University, South Africa.)

Abstract

This study examines the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the efficiency of oil markets from February 2nd, 2020 to August 4th, 2021. By relying on dynamic conditional correlation GARCH and Wavelet coherence techniques, we able to provide correlations between the variables across time and frequency domains. Our empirical findings point to significant yet weak correlations between COVID-19 recovery/death rates for the time period extending from early February to early May even though we observe strong correlations between WTI prices and COVID-19 health statistics in mid-April. Moreover, during this identified time period, the length of frequency cycles within the correlations decreases from 16days to 8days. Altogether, these findings imply that oil markets were inefficient between February and early May and have since turned market efficient for the remaining duration of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Clement Moyo & Izunna Anyikwa & Andrew Phiri, 2023. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Oil Market Returns: Has Market Efficiency Being Violated?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 118-127, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-01-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/13453/7119
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/13453
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gharib, Cheima & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Jabeur, Sami Ben, 2021. "The bubble contagion effect of COVID-19 outbreak: Evidence from crude oil and gold markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    2. Xu, Libo, 2021. "Stock Return and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Canada and the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Achraf Ghorbel & Ahmed Jeribi, 2021. "Volatility spillovers and contagion between energy sector and financial assets during COVID-19 crisis period," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 449-467, September.
    4. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4267-4272, November.
    5. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2009. "Global market integration: An alternative measure and its application," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 214-232, November.
    6. Elgammal, Mohammed M. & Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Alshami, Abdullah, 2021. "Price and volatility spillovers between global equity, gold, and energy markets prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
    8. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    9. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    10. repec:cii:cepiie:2014-q4-140-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Walid Mensi & Makram Beljid & Shunsuke Managi, 2014. "Structural breaks and the time-varying levels of weak-form efficiency in crude oil markets: Evidence from the Hurst exponent and Shannon entropy methods," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 140, pages 89-106.
    12. Okoroafor, Ugochi Chibuzor & Leirvik, Thomas, 2022. "Time varying market efficiency in the Brent and WTI crude market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    13. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Oil and gold as a hedge and safe-haven for metals and agricultural commodities with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    14. Mohammad S. Masnadi & Giacomo Benini & Hassan M. El-Houjeiri & Alice Milivinti & James E. Anderson & Timothy J. Wallington & Robert Kleine & Valerio Dotti & Patrick Jochem & Adam R. Brandt, 2021. "Carbon implications of marginal oils from market-derived demand shocks," Nature, Nature, vol. 599(7883), pages 80-84, November.
    15. Rouatbi, Wael & Demir, Ender & Kizys, Renatas & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Immunizing markets against the pandemic: COVID-19 vaccinations and stock volatility around the world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    17. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Xie, Wen-Jie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2014. "Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 235-244.
    18. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    19. Cristiana Tudor & Andrei Anghel, 2021. "The Financialization of Crude Oil Markets and Its Impact on Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Predictive Ability and Performance of Technical Trading Strategies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-19, July.
    20. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    21. Claudiu Albulescu, 2020. "Coronavirus and oil price crash," Papers 2003.06184, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    22. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2021. "Hedging stocks with oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    23. Zhang, Bing & Li, Xiao-Ming & He, Fei, 2014. "Testing the evolution of crude oil market efficiency: Data have the conn," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 39-52.
    24. Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi & Wael Louhichi & Mohamed El Arbi Madani, 2021. "Are oil and gas futures markets efficient? A multifractal analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 164-184, January.
    25. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
    26. Navratil, Robert & Taylor, Stephen & Vecer, Jan, 2021. "On equity market inefficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    27. Mazur, Mieszko & Dang, Man & Vega, Miguel, 2021. "COVID-19 and the march 2020 stock market crash. Evidence from S&P1500," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    28. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q1-129-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Salisu, Afees A. & Ebuh, Godday U. & Usman, Nuruddeen, 2020. "Revisiting oil-stock nexus during COVID-19 pandemic: Some preliminary results," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 280-294.
    30. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    31. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-574, May.
    32. Ghazani, Majid Mirzaee & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2019. "Testing the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the crude oil prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 60-68.
    33. Kakinaka, Shinji & Umeno, Ken, 2022. "Cryptocurrency market efficiency in short- and long-term horizons during COVID-19: An asymmetric multifractal analysis approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    34. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Safe havens in the face of Presidential election uncertainty: A comparison between Bitcoin, oil and precious metals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(57), pages 6076-6088, December.
    35. Mensi, Walid & Sensoy, Ahmet & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on asymmetric multifractality of gold and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    36. Evangelos Vasileiou, 2021. "Behavioral finance and market efficiency in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: does fear drive the market?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 224-241, March.
    37. Hernandez, Jose Areola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2019. "Can agricultural and precious metal commodities diversify and hedge extreme downside and upside oil market risk? An extreme quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 588-601.
    38. Arshad, Shaista & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Haroon, Omair & Mehmood, Fahad & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Are oil prices efficient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 362-370.
    39. repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q4-140-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Hedging UK stock portfolios with gold and oil: The impact of Brexit," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    41. Moussa, Wajdi & Mgadmi, Nidhal & Béjaoui, Azza & Regaieg, Rym, 2021. "Exploring the dynamic relationship between Bitcoin and commodities: New insights through STECM model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    42. Wang, Jingjing & Wang, Xiaoyang, 2021. "COVID-19 and financial market efficiency: Evidence from an entropy-based analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    43. Zhang, Bing, 2013. "Are the crude oil markets becoming more efficient over time? New evidence from a generalized spectral test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 875-881.
    44. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Evidence of oil market price clustering during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    45. Walid Mensi & Chaker Alaoui & Khuong Nguyen, 2012. "Crude oil market efficiency: An empirical investigation via the Shannon entropy," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 129, pages 119-137.
    46. DIMA, Bogdan & DIMA, Ştefana Maria & IOAN, Roxana, 2021. "Remarks on the behaviour of financial market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic. The case of VIX," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    47. Qing He & Junyi Liu & Sizhu Wang & Jishuang Yu, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on stock markets," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-288, July.
    48. Hemche, Omar & Jawadi, Fredj & Maliki, Samir B. & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2016. "On the study of contagion in the context of the subprime crisis: A dynamic conditional correlation–multivariate GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 292-299.
    49. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun, 2021. "The Russia-Saudi Arabia oil price war during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jebabli, Ikram & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Time-varying efficiency in food and energy markets: Evidence and implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 97-114.
    2. Zheng, Wenyuan & Li, Bingqing & Huang, Zhiyong & Chen, Lu, 2022. "Why Was There More Household Stock Market Participation During the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    3. Espinosa-Paredes, G. & Rodriguez, E. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2022. "A singular value decomposition entropy approach to assess the impact of Covid-19 on the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Changing efficiency of BRICS currency markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1673-1699, August.
    5. Memon, Bilal Ahmed & Yao, Hongxing & Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad, 2022. "Examining the efficiency and herding behavior of commodity markets using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Empirical evidence from energy, agriculture, and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Bhatia, Madhur, 2023. "On the efficiency of the gold returns: An econometric exploration for India, USA and Brazil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Wang, Xiaoyang, 2022. "Efficient markets are more connected: An entropy-based analysis of the energy, industrial metal and financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    8. Roy, Archi & Soni, Anchal & Deb, Soudeep, 2023. "A wavelet-based methodology to compare the impact of pandemic versus Russia–Ukraine conflict on crude oil sector and its interconnectedness with other energy and non-energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Müller, Fernanda Maria & Santos, Samuel Solgon & Righi, Marcelo Brutti, 2023. "A description of the COVID-19 outbreak role in financial risk forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes & Saidi, Sana & Sellami, Mohamed, 2022. "Global pandemic crisis and risk contagion in GCC stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 746-761.
    11. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Portfolio diversification during the COVID-19 pandemic: Do vaccinations matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Arfaoui, Nadia & Yousaf, Imran & Jareño, Francisco, 2023. "Return and volatility connectedness between gold and energy markets: Evidence from the pre- and post-COVID vaccination phases," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 617-634.
    13. Jyotirmayee Behera & Ajit Kumar Pasayat & Harekrushna Behera, 2022. "COVID-19 Vaccination Effect on Stock Market and Death Rate in India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(4), pages 651-673, December.
    14. Hazem Al Samman & Erhan Akkas, 2022. "How Do the Crises of Falling Oil Prices and COVID-19 Affect Economic Sectors in the Rentier Economies? Evidence from the GCC Countries," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 65(65), pages 105-127, June.
    15. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty, investor sentiment, and global equity markets: Evidence from the time-frequency co-movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad & Amjad Saber Al-Delawi, 2022. "Iraqi Stock Exchange Reactions to the Oil price, Covid-19 Aftermath, and the Saudi Stock Exchange Movements pre-during Vaccination Program," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 18-30, September.
    17. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    18. Maher Abida & Emna Mnif, 2023. "Investor Attention in Cryptocurrency Markets: Examining the Effects of Vaccination and COVID-19 Spread through a Wavelet Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 43-51, September.
    19. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Yousaf, Imran & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Asymmetric efficiency in petroleum markets before and during COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    20. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Adaptive market hypothesis: The story of the stock markets and COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DCC-GARCH; Wavelet coherence; WTI; Brent; OPEC; Efficiency Market Hypothesis; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-01-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.