IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2022-04-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Relationship between the Return of Gold, Crude Oil, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand Based on a Vector Autoregressive Model

Author

Listed:
  • Wongtawan Uthumrat

    (Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management Sciences, Prince of Songkla University, Thailand.)

Abstract

This research aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between the return of gold (RGOLD), crude oil (RCO), and the stock exchange of Thailand (RSET) using the Vector Autoregressive model: VAR(p) to analyze the secondary monthly data from January 2002 to October 2022. The paper reports three key findings. Firstly, the Granger causality test reveals two direct relationships: one between RCO and RSET, and the other between RSET, RCO, and RGOLD. Moreover, the researcher estimated the relationship between these variables by using the VAR(1) model. Secondly, the impulse response function (IRF) is applied by Granger causality results. When a variable is shocked by an impulse in the system, the RCO to RSET response increases by 0.21 percent, the RSET to RGOLD response increases by 0.10 percent, and the RCO to RGOLD response increases by 0.04 percent, before decreasing and approaching equilibrium. Finally, variance decomposition shows that the greatest portion of total variation in RGOLD, RCO, and RSET can be explained by itself in the long run. Moreover, the variation of RSET can be affected by the variation of RCO while the variation of RGOLD can be affected by the variation of RCO and RSET. Thus, investors, securities analysts, or fund managers can use the study s results for strategic investment planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Wongtawan Uthumrat, 2022. "Dynamic Relationship between the Return of Gold, Crude Oil, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand Based on a Vector Autoregressive Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 350-356, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-04-37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/13231/6848
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/13231
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Kumar, Suresh & Choudhary, Sangita & Singh, Gurcharan & Singhal, Shelly, 2021. "Crude oil, gold, natural gas, exchange rate and indian stock market: Evidence from the asymmetric nonlinear ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    4. Felix Chukwubuzo Alio & Victor O. Okolo & Obiamaka P. Egbo & Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku, 2019. "Energy Prices and the Nigerian Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 33-37.
    5. Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C., 2016. "Dynamic linkages among oil price, gold price, exchange rate, and stock market in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 179-185.
    6. Semei Coronado, Rebeca Jiménez-Rodrguez, and Omar Rojas, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationships between Crude Oil, Gold and Stock Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    7. Walid Chkili, 2022. "The links between gold, oil prices and Islamic stock markets in a regime switching environment," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 169-186, March.
    8. Vikas Pandey & Vipul Vipul, 2018. "Volatility spillover from crude oil and gold to BRICS equity markets," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(2), pages 426-440, May.
    9. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: Volatility spillovers and financial policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Xanthi Partalidou & Apostolos Kiohos & Grigoris Giannarakis & Nikolaos Sariannidis, 2016. "The Impact of Gold, Bond, Currency, Metals and Oil Markets on the USA Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 76-81.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shafa Guliyeva, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indexes During the Epidemic Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 526-536, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shafa Guliyeva, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indexes During the Epidemic Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 526-536, March.
    2. Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Jammazi, Rania & Assaf, Ata, 2017. "Uncovering frequency domain causality between gold and the stock markets of China and India: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 23-30.
    3. Farid, Saqib & Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Intraday volatility transmission among precious metals, energy and stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Bonato, Matteo & Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Moments-based spillovers across gold and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Mighri, Zouheir & Ragoubi, Hanen & Sarwar, Suleman & Wang, Yihan, 2022. "Quantile Granger causality between US stock market indices and precious metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Bouri, Elie & Jain, Anshul & Biswal, P.C. & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Cointegration and nonlinear causality amongst gold, oil, and the Indian stock market: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 201-206.
    8. Cheng, Sheng & Deng, MingJie & Liang, Ruibin & Cao, Yan, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility spillover among global oil, gold, and Chinese sectors in the presence of major emergencies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Shahani, Rakesh & Paliwal, Riya, 2020. "An empirical analysis of the Co-movement of Crude, Gold, Rupee-Dollar Exchange rate and Nifty 50 Stock Index during Sub-prime and Coronavirus crisis periods," MPRA Paper 103568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2021. "Do volatility indices diminish gold's appeal as a safe haven to investors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 214-235.
    11. Hong, Yanran & Ma, Feng & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao, 2022. "How does the COVID-19 outbreak affect the causality between gold and the stock market? New evidence from the extreme Granger causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Vesarach Aumeboonsuke, 2021. "Commodity Prices and the Stock Market in Thailand," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 34-40.
    13. Tursoy, Turgut & Faisal, Faisal, 2018. "The impact of gold and crude oil prices on stock market in Turkey: Empirical evidences from ARDL bounds test and combined cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 49-54.
    14. Manabu Asai & Rangan Gupta & Michael McAleer, 2019. "The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, September.
    15. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Does oil impact gold during COVID-19 and three other recent crises?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Soylu, Pınar Kaya & Güloğlu, Bülent, 2019. "Financial contagion and flight to quality between emerging markets and U.S. bond market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    17. Aamir Aijaz Syed & Muhammad Abdul Kamal, 2024. "Do cryptocurrency and commodities markets affect stock market performance in South Asia? An empirical investigation during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 27(4), pages 673-692.
    18. Abdelbari El Khamlichi & Thi Hong Van Hoang & Wing‐keung Wong, 2016. "Is Gold Different for Islamic and Conventional Portfolios? A Sectorial Analysis," Post-Print hal-02965765, HAL.
    19. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2016. "Extreme risk spillover effects in world gold markets and the global financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 55-77.
    20. Alqahtani, Faisal & Hamdi, Besma & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2021. "The effects of global factors on the Saudi Arabia equity market by firm size: Implications for risk management based on quantile analysis and frequency domain causality," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gold; Crude oil; Stock exchange of Thailand; Vector Autoregressive;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-04-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.