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The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Exchange Rate and Stock Price in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Kamaldeen Ajala

    (West African Monetary Authority, Sierra-Leone, West Africa,)

  • Musa Abdullahi Sakanko

    (Department of Economics, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria,)

  • Sesan Oluseyi Adeniji

    (Department of Economics, University of Abuja, Abuja, Nigeria.)

Abstract

The study examines the asymmetric effect of oil price on the exchange rate and stock price using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) technique on the time-series data spanning from January 1996 to September 2020. The multivariate cointegration test showed evidence of a long-run relationship among the stock price, exchange rate, and oil price. The linear Granger causality test showed that stock price is granger caused by oil price and exchange rate, and oil price is granger cause by stock price and exchange rate. The nonlinear granger causality showed evidence of nonlinearity using the BDS test. The Dick-Panchenko non-parametric and nonlinear Granger causality test in a contrary to the linear Granger causality test showed a unidirectional nonlinear causality from exchange rate to stock price at 10% level, and from oil price to exchange rate at 1% and 10% levels respectively. The result from the nonlinear ARDL revealed that change in oil price impacted asymmetrically on the exchange rate and stock price both in the short-run and long-run. The study recommends that the revenue generated from increasing oil price should be used for developing and reinstalling decayed infrastructure and oil-exporting countries should develop mechanisms and strategies that will ensure fair stability in the capital markets irrespective of the shocks in oil price.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamaldeen Ajala & Musa Abdullahi Sakanko & Sesan Oluseyi Adeniji, 2021. "The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Exchange Rate and Stock Price in Nigeria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 202-208.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-04-25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Witold Orzeszko, 2021. "Nonlinear Causality between Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence and Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, September.
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    4. Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Stock Market and Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 163-168.
    5. Nurkhodzha Akbulaev & Imangulu Muradzada & Ziyadhan Hasanov, 2023. "Relationship between Oil Prices and Russia Exchange Indices: Analysis of Frequency Causality," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 607-615, September.
    6. Imangulu Muradzada & Nurkhodza Akbulev, 2023. "Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Basic Energy Sources and the Tourism Sector Index," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 513-521, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Oil price; Nonlinear model; Stock price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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