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Projection of Biodiesel Production in Indonesia to Achieve National Mandatory Blending in 2025 using System Dynamics Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Fitriyanti Mayasari

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Rinaldy Dalimi

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia)

  • Widodo Wahyu Purwanto

    (Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia.)

Abstract

Biodiesel has been produced since 2006 in Indonesia and regulation of biodiesel blending has been set, but the actual blending rate was never reached the target. The research aims to increase biodiesel production to achieve mandatory target and reduce diesel oil import. It will project biodiesel production achieving demand in Indonesia until 2025 and proposes some strategies to increase blended biodiesel production by constructing system dynamics modeling. The research shows, there are 3 scenarios to increase biodiesel production; palm oil cultivation land, palm oil productivity and refined CPO shared. To meet blended biodiesel demand, cultivation land should be increased to 3.2-6.5% per year, productivity should be fixed to 12.54 ton/ha and refined CPO shared should be adjusted to 56.9-65.4%. This scenario also will reduce diesel oil import to 7.16 9.82 million kL per year. Refined CPO shared is the most influenced variable; therefore the government should consider to make refined CPO export limitation policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Fitriyanti Mayasari & Rinaldy Dalimi & Widodo Wahyu Purwanto, 2019. "Projection of Biodiesel Production in Indonesia to Achieve National Mandatory Blending in 2025 using System Dynamics Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 421-429.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-06-51
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Erwan Hermawan & Adiarso Adiarso & Sigit Setiadi & Dudi Hidayat, 2023. "Strategy for the implementation of sustainable green fuels in Indonesia," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(1), pages 103-139.
    2. Muhammad Mutasim Billah Tufail & Mohd Nasrun Mohd Nawi & Akhtiar Ali & Faizal Baharum & Mohamad Zamhari Tahir & Anas Abdelsatar Mohammad Salameh, 2021. "Forecasting Impact of Demand Side Management on Malaysia s Power Generation using System Dynamic Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 412-418.
    3. Sylvia Mardiana, 2023. "Gasoline Policy Simulation to Increase Responsiveness Using System Dynamics: A Case Study of Indonesia’s Gasoline Downstream Supply Chain," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 109-118, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Blended Biodiesel Production; System Dynamics Modeling; Refined CPO Export;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z - Other Special Topics

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