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Regional Energy Supply Planning: Chance Constraint Programming

Author

Listed:
  • Alimorad Sharifi

    (Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran)

  • Nasim Mansouri

    (Department of Urban Economics, Isfahan University of Art, Isfahan, Iran)

  • Babak Saffari

    (Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran)

  • Shahram Moeeni

    (Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran)

Abstract

Regional energy planning under uncertainty is an important concept in energy-economy models which makes the planning outcomes closer to reality and enables the decision maker to select the best decision. Reliability of local energy supply and the possibility of long-term access to resources and emissions reduction is an essential step. In this study, an urban energy demand which is supplied by electricity network is investigated with an optimal combination of alternative energy resources such as solar, wind and natural gas during the next 10 years. The optimal combination of fossil energy as well as renewable energies are determined by goal stochastic programming model. Isfahan province in Iran has been selected as a case study. Empirical results indicate that due to the importance of investment and operation costs, the dominant share of energy supply will belong to natural gas, while the shares of solar and wind energies remain constant in the next decade. In sum, the share of solar and wind energies increases by 8% in 10 years and therefore, it is not necessary to increase electricity supply by the network in order to meet annual increasing demand. CO2 and NOx emissions will decrease significantly

Suggested Citation

  • Alimorad Sharifi & Nasim Mansouri & Babak Saffari & Shahram Moeeni, 2019. "Regional Energy Supply Planning: Chance Constraint Programming," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 433-441.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2019-05-48
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic programming; Goal programming; Local energy planning; Iran.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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