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Uncertainty of Oil Proved Reserves and Economic Growth in Iran

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Listed:
  • Elaheh Asadi Mehmandosti

    (Department of Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran)

  • Fatemeh Bazazan

    (Department of Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran,)

  • Mir Hossein Mousavi

    (Department of Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

The relationship between the oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental empirical issue in macroeconomics. Also, a part of major debates between the pessimists and the optimists approaches about economic growth is how uncertainty of proved reserves of non-renewable energy resources as a one of main inputs, effects on the economic growth; in other words, on the base of some optimistic new economic growth models, the uncertainty through positive shocks positively effects on the economic growth. So, to find some evidences about it, in this research we try to find experimentally direct effects of uncertainty of oil proved reserves on macroeconomics of Iran by using annually data from 1980 to 2013 by using Multivariate generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity in-mean vector auto-regression (VAR) model. We find that uncertainty in oil proved reserves has not had statistically significant effect on aggregate output and the responses to positive and negative shocks are symmetric.

Suggested Citation

  • Elaheh Asadi Mehmandosti & Fatemeh Bazazan & Mir Hossein Mousavi, 2016. "Uncertainty of Oil Proved Reserves and Economic Growth in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 374-380.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2016-03-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Oil Proved Reserves; Time Allocation of Resources; Vector Auto-regression Multivariate Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean Vector Auto-regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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