IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2023-04-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimated Impact of Covid-19 on Exchange Rate Risk of Multinational Enterprises Operating in Emerging Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Leonard Arvi

    (Perdue School of Business, Salisbury University, MD, USA.)

  • Herman Manakyan

    (Perdue School of Business, Salisbury University, MD, USA.)

  • Kashi Khazeh

    (Perdue School of Business, Salisbury University, MD, USA.)

Abstract

Multinational enterprises (MNE) operating in emerging countries are exposed to various types of risk. Exchange rate risk is an important and anticipated part of MNE s total risk exposure, with a variety of tools available to mitigate that risk. In this study, we focus on transaction exposure of cash flows in eight distinctive emerging market currencies and employ the Modified Value-at-Risk (MVaR) model to estimate the maximum one-period loss during an eighteen-month period spanning pre- and post-Covid-19 periods. The predicted losses by MVaR are then compared to the ex-post results, to identify any differences in the pre- and post-Covid-19 periods and to determine the need for adjustments in hedging strategies by MNEs during similar global crises. The motive of this research is to understand the limitations of hedging and what MNEs can do to mitigate transaction exposure risk. The results provide insights on whether MNEs should hedge their currency risk or not. The COVID-19 pandemic did impact all firms globally, so this study is relevant and pertinent as firms plan their post-pandemic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard Arvi & Herman Manakyan & Kashi Khazeh, 2023. "Estimated Impact of Covid-19 on Exchange Rate Risk of Multinational Enterprises Operating in Emerging Markets," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 23-29, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2023-04-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/14510/7354
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/14510
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista, 2004. "A Comparison of VaR and CVaR Constraints on Portfolio Selection with the Mean-Variance Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1261-1273, September.
    2. Samir Mabrouk & Chaker Aloui, 2011. "GARCH-class models estimations and value-at-risk analysis for exchange rate," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 254-278.
    3. Edward P. Santos & Dennis S. Mapa & Eloisa T. Glindro, 2010. "Estimating inflation-at-risk (IaR) using extreme value theory (EVT)," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 21-40, December.
    4. Basak, Suleyman & Shapiro, Alexander, 2001. "Value-at-Risk-Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 371-405.
    5. Michal Kaut & Hercules Vladimirou & Stein W. Wallace & Stavros A. Zenios, 2007. "Stability analysis of portfolio management with conditional value-at-risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 397-409.
    6. repec:srs:journl:jasf:v:1:y:2010:i:2:p:152-170 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Peter Julian A Cayton & Dennis S Mapa & Mary Therese A Lising, 2010. "Estimating Value At Risk Var Using Tivex Pot Models," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 152-170.
    8. Omar Abbara & Mauricio Zevallos, 2018. "Modeling and forecasting intraday VaR of an exchange rate portfolio," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 729-738, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2014. "Bank regulation and international financial stability: A case against the 2006 Basel framework for controlling tail risk in trading books," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 107-130.
    2. Jeremy Berkowitz & Peter Christoffersen & Denis Pelletier, 2011. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk Models with Desk-Level Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(12), pages 2213-2227, December.
    3. Guan, Guohui & Liang, Zongxia, 2016. "Optimal management of DC pension plan under loss aversion and Value-at-Risk constraints," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 224-237.
    4. Tongyao Wang & Qitong Pan & Weiping Wu & Jianjun Gao & Ke Zhou, 2024. "Dynamic Mean–Variance Portfolio Optimization with Value-at-Risk Constraint in Continuous Time," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Suleyman Basak & Alex Shapiro & Lucie Teplá, 2006. "Risk Management with Benchmarking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 542-557, April.
    6. P. Kumar & Jyotirmayee Behera & A. K. Bhurjee, 2022. "Solving mean-VaR portfolio selection model with interval-typed random parameter using interval analysis," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 59(1), pages 41-77, March.
    7. Felix Fie{ss}inger & Mitja Stadje, 2023. "Time-Consistent Asset Allocation for Risk Measures in a L\'evy Market," Papers 2305.09471, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    8. Fulbert, Tchana Tchana & Georges, Tsafack, 2013. "The Implications of VaR and Short-Selling Restrictions on the Portfolio Manager Performance," MPRA Paper 43797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. James O'Brien & Jeremy Berkowitz, 2005. "Estimating Bank Trading Risk: A Factor Model Approach," NBER Working Papers 11608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Xu Guo & Raymond H. Chan & Wing-Keung Wong & Lixing Zhu, 2019. "Mean–variance, mean–VaR, and mean–CVaR models for portfolio selection with background risk," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(2), pages 73-98, June.
    11. Grauer, Robert R., 2013. "Limiting losses may be injurious to your wealth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5088-5100.
    12. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M., 2006. "Does the Basle Capital Accord reduce bank fragility? An assessment of the value-at-risk approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1631-1660, October.
    13. René Garcia & Éric Renault & Georges Tsafack, 2007. "Proper Conditioning for Coherent VaR in Portfolio Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 483-494, March.
    14. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2012. "When more is less: Using multiple constraints to reduce tail risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2693-2716.
    15. Sun, Yufei & Aw, Grace & Teo, Kok Lay & Zhu, Yanjian & Wang, Xiangyu, 2016. "Multi-period portfolio optimization under probabilistic risk measure," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 60-66.
    16. Huang, Jinbo & Ding, Ashley & Li, Yong & Lu, Dong, 2020. "Increasing the risk management effectiveness from higher accuracy: A novel non-parametric method," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M., 2009. "Stress testing by financial intermediaries: Implications for portfolio selection and asset pricing," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 65-92, January.
    18. Xue Dong He & Hanqing Jin & Xun Yu Zhou, 2015. "Dynamic Portfolio Choice When Risk Is Measured by Weighted VaR," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 773-796, March.
    19. Frank Fabozzi & Dashan Huang & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Robust portfolios: contributions from operations research and finance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 191-220, April.
    20. Cheridito, Patrick & Stadje, Mitja, 2009. "Time-inconsistency of VaR and time-consistent alternatives," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 40-46, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Factor Movements; International Business; International Finance; Exchange Rate; Modified Value at Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2023-04-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.