IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2014-04-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Regime Choice with Multinomial Panel Data: Case of the North Africa Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Esmak Hassan

    (University Mohammed V Rabat-Agdal, Morocco.)

  • Firano Zakaria

    (University Mohammed V Rabat-Agdal, Morocco.)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to identify the determinants of exchange regime choice for North Africa Region. The target is to provide an empirical framework suitable for describe and determine the factors having a significant influence on the development of the choice of the regime of exchange. The empirical approach is based on a model of multinomial probit with panel data. The choice of this new approach is justified by the need for collecting the dynamics of the choice of exchange regime, without having recourse to an orthodoxy design (binomial), and by collecting individual heterogeneity between the various countries of the panel. The results obtained affirm that the financial development, the economic growth and monetary creation constitute the principal determinants of exchange regime. Other variables are also significant; it acts in particular of the level of the foreign debt, the inflation and the rate of opening. As, the results affirm as the fixed regimes of countries of the panel are largely explained by the dependence to external flows and of the importance of monetary reserves in the design of exchange and monetary policies. Being dependent on the exogenous creation of the currency, the worldwide choose a fixed regime of exchange by drawing more and more interventionism on the level of the exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Esmak Hassan & Firano Zakaria, 2014. "Exchange Regime Choice with Multinomial Panel Data: Case of the North Africa Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 745-757.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2014-04-06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/896/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/896/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avery, Robert B & Hansen, Lars Peter & Hotz, V Joseph, 1983. "Multiperiod Probit Models and Orthogonality Condition Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 21-35, February.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    5. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt Hebbel, 2008. "Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 494, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. G. S. Maddala, 1987. "Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 307-338.
    8. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Miss Grace Juhn, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/104, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    10. Sfia, Mohamed Daly, 2007. "Le choix du régime de change pour les économies émergentes," MPRA Paper 4075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Ms. Anne Marie Gulde & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 1995/121, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence From De Facto Policies," IMF Working Papers 2002/155, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Zhou, Jizhong & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Fear of floating and fear of pegging: An empirical anaysis of de facto exchange rate regimes in developing countries," ZEI Working Papers B 31-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    14. Williamson, John, 1993. "Exchange Rate Management," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 188-197, January.
    15. Leland B. Yeager, 1998. "How to Avoid International Financial Crises," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 17(3), pages 257-265, Winter.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 10.
    17. Walter B. Wriston, 1998. "Dumb Networks and Smart Capital," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 17(3), Winter.
    18. Cukierman, Alex & Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 537-555, June.
    19. James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ayoub Rabhi & Amina Haoudi, 2017. "Developing Economies Optimal Exchange Rate Regime: to Float or to Peg for Morocco?," Post-Print hal-02432744, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:eco:journ1:2014-03-06 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Mr. Robin Brooks & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2003/243, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Coudert, Virginie & Dubert, Marc, 2005. "Does exchange rate regime explain differences in economic results for Asian countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 874-895, October.
    4. Meissner, Christopher M. & Oomes, Nienke, 2009. "Why do countries peg the way they peg? The determinants of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 522-547, April.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    6. Ledesma Rodríguez, Francisco J. & Ibáñez, Manuel Navarro & Pérez Rodríguez, Jorge V. & Rivero, Simón Sosvilla, 2005. "Regímenes cambiarios de iure y de facto. El caso de la peseta/dólar, 1965–1998," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 541-561, December.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jurgen Von Hagen & Jizhong Zhou, 2008. "The interaction between capital controls and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 163-185.
    9. Biswajit Mohanty & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation: Evidence from India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 311-332, June.
    10. Mohamed Sfia, 2011. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in the MENA countries: a probit analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 275-305, September.
    11. Tavlas, George & Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan C., 2008. "The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 941-963, August.
    12. Alexis Cruz-Rodriguez, 2013. "Choosing and Assessing Exchange Rate Regimes: a Survey of the Literature," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 28(2), pages 37-61, October.
    13. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.
    14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    15. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "Exchange rate volatility across financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3010-3018, November.
    16. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    17. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Mahvash S Qureshi & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2011. "Words vs. Deeds: What Really Matters?," IMF Working Papers 2011/112, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan & Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky, 2013. "Drivers of Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2013/236, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Manuela Francisco & Michael Bleaney, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Discipline - Only Hard Pegs Make a Difference," NIPE Working Papers 6/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    21. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A mulitnominal panal analysis," ZEI Working Papers B 32-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regime; multinomial panel data; economics growth.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2014-04-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.