IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apeclt/v8y2001i7p459-462.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The term structure of UIP: evidence from survey data

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Marc Berk
  • Klaas Knot

Abstract

This note focuses on uncovered interest parity (UIP) in the short and medium run using survey-based exchange rate expectations. Analysing the major world currencies over the period 1985-1998 the paper finds that the validity of the UIP relation increases with the term of the investment, thereby supporting the theoretical notions developed by literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Marc Berk & Klaas Knot, 2001. "The term structure of UIP: evidence from survey data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 459-462.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:7:p:459-462
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850010004036
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/13504850010004036&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13504850010004036?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    2. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1993. "Further evidence on exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 78-98, February.
    5. MacDonald, Ronald & Macmillan, Peter, 1994. "On the Expectations View of the Term Structure, Term Premia and Survey-Based Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1070-1086, September.
    6. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
    7. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November.
    8. Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Cavaglia, Stefano M. F. G. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1996. "A note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 179-188, January.
    10. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
    11. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    12. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Parity and the USD/COP Echange Rate," Borradores de Economia 227, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Schepp, Zoltán, 2003. "Befektetői horizont és a „forwardrejtély” [The investor horizon and the ‘forward puzzle’]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 939-963.
    3. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    4. Jaimilton Carvalho & José Angelo Divino, 2008. "Paridade Descoberta da Taxa de Juros em Países Latino-Americanos," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807172349250, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berk, Jan Marc & Knot, Klaas H. W., 2001. "Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-based exchange rate expectations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 377-391, February.
    2. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    3. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    4. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    5. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Figueiredo Pinto, Antonio Carlos, 2016. "Evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-115.
    6. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
    7. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Hélène Raymond, 1996. "Les erreurs de prévision de change ont-elles des caractéristiques hétérogènes ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 137-157.
    8. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," FAME Research Paper Series rp156, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    10. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
    11. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    12. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bernhard O. Ishioro, 2014. "The Dynamics Of Exchange Rate Expectations Formation: The Nigerian Perspective," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 23(2), pages 431-460, december.
    15. Gruen, D.W.R. & Gizycki, M.C., 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is It Anchoring?," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    16. Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Reexamining what survey data say about currency risk and irrationality using the cointegrated VAR," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1631-1643.
    17. repec:eid:wpaper:02/11 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1993. "The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastibility of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors," NBER Working Papers 4442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    20. Dandan Li & A Ghoshray & Bruce Morley, 2011. "Uncovered Interest Parity and the Risk Premium," Department of Economics Working Papers 02/11, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    21. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers hal-04141348, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:7:p:459-462. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEL20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.