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FOMC forecasts and economic policy uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Dandan Liu

    (Kent State University)

  • Michael A Ellis

    (Kent State University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the influence of economic policy uncertainty on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting participants' economic forecasts. We find evidence that during periods when the public had increased uncertainty about economic policy there was little change in the dispersion of views by FOMC meeting participants about the future path of inflation, consistent with increased emphasis on inflation objectives prior to formal inflation targeting. In contrast, there was increased dispersion of FOMC unemployment rate forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Dandan Liu & Michael A Ellis, 2021. "FOMC forecasts and economic policy uncertainty," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 213-221.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00782
    as

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2021/Volume41/EB-21-V41-I2-P20.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 803-833, June.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal Open Market Committee; economic policy uncertainty; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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