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Long-run co-movements between oil prices and rig count in the presence of structural breaks

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  • Nicoleta Iliescu

    (Iona College)

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the existence of long-run common trends (co-movements) shared by the WTI oil prices and the rig count variable in the US. To test for cointegration, we employ the Engle-Granger two-step procedure, the Johansen cointegration test, and the Gregory-Hansen procedure (which takes into account the possibility of structural breaks in the data). Both the Engle-Granger procedure and Johansen tests cannot find cointegration. However, the Gregory-Hansen procedure rejects the hypothesis of no cointegration at 1% in the specification which allows for structural breaks in the constant term, slope coefficients, and the trend term. In addition to cointegration, we examine the existence of any type of Granger-causality running between the two variables of interest. The Granger test identifies a bidirectional causality running between the two variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoleta Iliescu, 2018. "Long-run co-movements between oil prices and rig count in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1171-1179.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-18-00297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Khalifa, Ahmed & Caporin, Massimiliano & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "The relationship between oil prices and rig counts: The importance of lags," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 213-226.
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    6. Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1698-1734, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Massimiliano Caporin & Fulvio Fontini & Rocco Romaniello, 2024. "The Asymmetric Relationship between Conventional/Shale Rig Counts and WTI Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(2), pages 137-187, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil prices; rig count; structural breaks; cointegration; Granger-causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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