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Trade integration and export survival: Evidence from Turkish machinery products

Author

Listed:
  • Hulya Saygili

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

  • Kemal Türkcan

    (Akdeniz University)

Abstract

This paper uses survival analysis to investigate the effects of economic integration agreements on export duration using highly disaggregated machinery exports data from Turkey for the 1998-2013 period. Results obtained from the descriptive statistical analysis suggest that the duration of Turkey's machinery exports is remarkably short with a median duration of merely one year. In addition, we find that the mean and median duration of exports vary substantially across different types of trade agreements. Based on discrete-time duration models, we show that an economic integration agreement has a dual effect on the stability of export relationships: it increases the survival of export relationships which had already started before the agreement took place but reduces the survival of those that start afterwards. Finally, we also report that the effects differ depending on the type of trade agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Hulya Saygili & Kemal Türkcan, 2017. "Trade integration and export survival: Evidence from Turkish machinery products," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1918-1927.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00284
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2017/Volume37/EB-17-V37-I3-P173.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    2. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Die another day: duration in German import trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 133-154, April.
    3. Obashi, Ayako, 2010. "Stability of production networks in East Asia: Duration and survival of trade," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 21-30, January.
    4. Córcoles, David & Díaz-Mora, Carmen & Gandoy, Rosario, 2014. "Product sophistication: A tie that binds partners in international trade," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 33-41.
    5. Luis Florensa & Laura Márquez-Ramos & María Recalde, 2015. "The effect of economic integration and institutional quality of trade agreements on trade margins: evidence for Latin America," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(2), pages 329-351, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sun, Changyou & Zhang, Xufang, 2018. "Duration of U.S. forest products trade," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 57-68.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export duration; Survival analysis; Economic integration agreements;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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