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Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area

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  • Aka, B.F.

Abstract

This paper examines the issue of existence and identification of a regional business or economic cycle in aggregated West African economic and monetary union (WAEMU) economy and single member countries’ real GDP as well, by using a Markov regime switching model and the Gibbs Sampling simulation method. We found similarities of business cycle among individual countries. Comparing countries’ cycles to the aggregated one, the chronology and amplitude of Côte d’Ivoire’s business cycle appears to be closer to the union’s cycle. Using the real GDP data the aggregated WAEMU business cycle can be characterized, according to its mean duration (8 years), as a Juglar type cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:4:y:2004:i:1_27
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    Cited by:

    1. AKA, Bedia F. & GUISAN, Maria-Carmen, 2017. "Cutting Poverty Rate Using Basic Income Grant And International Cooperation In Cote D’Ivoire And Other Western Africa Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(1), pages 101-112.
    2. AKA, Bédia F., 2009. "Business Cycle And Sectoral Fluctuations: A Nonlinear Model For Côte D’Ivoire," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1), pages 111-126.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Business cycles; Non-linear Time series; Markov Switching model; Gibbs sampling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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