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Bereinigung sozioökonomischer Effekte bei Schäden tropischer Wirbelstürme für eine Analyse zum Einfluss des Klimawandels

Author

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  • Silvio Schmidt
  • Claudia Kemfert
  • Peter Höppe

Abstract

An der Atlantikküste der USA haben die ökonomischen Schäden durch tropische Wirbelstürme in den letzten zehn Jahren dramatisch zugenommen. Es ist anzunehmen, dass ein Großteil der wirtschaftlichen Schäden darauf zurückzuführen ist, dass der Wohlstand der Bevölkerung gestiegen ist und immer mehr Menschen sich in den gefährdeten Gebieten ansiedeln. Es ist aber auch anzunehmen, dass der Klimawandel dazu führt, dass immer häufiger starke Wirbelstürme auftreten. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, die sozioökonomischen Effekte zu isolieren und den potentiellen Einfluss des Klimawandels auf diesen Trend festzustellen. Dafür werden Sturmschäden der Jahre 1950 bis 2005 auf das sozioökonomische Niveau im Jahr 2005 angepasst. Ein verbleibender Trend in diesen adjustierten Schäden wäre somit nicht mehr mit den sozioökonomischen Entwicklungen erklärbar. Für die Zeit 1971 bis 2005 findet sich ein statistisch signifikanter Trend mit einem jährlichen Anstieg der um die sozioökonomischen Effekte bereinigten Schäden von 4 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvio Schmidt & Claudia Kemfert & Peter Höppe, 2008. "Bereinigung sozioökonomischer Effekte bei Schäden tropischer Wirbelstürme für eine Analyse zum Einfluss des Klimawandels," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 77(4), pages 116-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:77-4-10
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.77.4.116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    2. William D. Nordhaus, 2006. "The Economics of Hurricanes in the United States," NBER Working Papers 12813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Claudia Kemfert, 2005. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change," Weekly Report, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 43-49.
    4. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina," Post-Print hal-00716550, HAL.
    5. Mary Downton & Roger Pielke, 2005. "How Accurate are Disaster Loss Data? The Case of U.S. Flood Damage," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 35(2), pages 211-228, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Höppe, 2008. "Naturgefahren und Klimawandel: die Rolle der Versicherungswirtschaft," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 77(4), pages 110-115.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Klimawandel; Tropische Wirbelstürme; Schadentrends; Trendanalyse;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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