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Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Jessie Yeung

    (University of Toronto)

  • Monica Alexander

    (University of Toronto)

  • Tim Riffe

    (Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea (University of the Basque Country))

Abstract

Background: The Rogers–Castro model migration schedule is a key model for migration trends over the life course. It is applied in a wide variety of settings by demographers to examine the relationship between age and migration intensity. This model is nonlinear and can have up to 13 parameters, which can make estimation difficult. Existing techniques for parameter estimation can lead to issues such as nonconvergence, sensitivity to initial values, or optimization algorithms that do not reach the global optimum. Objective: We propose a new method of estimating Rogers–Castro model migration schedule parameters that overcomes most common difficulties. Methods: We apply a Bayesian framework for fitting the Rogers–Castro model. We also provide the R package rcbayes with functions to easily apply our proposed methodology. Results: We illustrate how this model and the R package can be used in a variety of settings by applying the model to data from the American Community Survey. Contribution: We provide a novel and easy-to-use approach for estimating Rogers–Castro model parameters. Our approach is formalized in an R package that makes parameter estimation and Bayesian methods more accessible for demographers and other researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessie Yeung & Monica Alexander & Tim Riffe, 2023. "Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 49(42), pages 1201-1228.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:49:y:2023:i:42
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2023.49.42
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrei Rogers & Luis Castro & Megan Lea, 2005. "Model Migration Schedules: Three Alternative Linear Parameter Estimation Methods," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-38.
    2. Carpenter, Bob & Gelman, Andrew & Hoffman, Matthew D. & Lee, Daniel & Goodrich, Ben & Betancourt, Michael & Brubaker, Marcus & Guo, Jiqiang & Li, Peter & Riddell, Allen, 2017. "Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 76(i01).
    3. Tom Wilson, 2010. "Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 23(8), pages 191-222.
    4. Andrei Rogers & James Raymer, 1999. "Fitting Observed Demographic Rates with the Multiexponential Model Schedule: An Assessment of Two Estimation Programs," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jenny Garcia Arias, 2024. "The Demography of Crisis‐Driven Outflows from Venezuela," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(3), pages 643-675, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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