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Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela Ghio

    (European Commission Joint Research Centre)

  • Anne Goujon

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Fabrizio Natale

    (European Commission Joint Research Centre)

Abstract

Background: Ageing is central in the European Union (EU) policy debate, with all member states being concerned about implications of growing shares of older people and declining shares of working-age populations for the sustainability of welfare and health systems. Beyond this general context, ageing patterns differ largely across EU territories because of distinctive demographic and spatial dynamics. Objective: We study the relative contribution of cohort turnover and migration flows in shaping the demographic evolution of the working-age population at the local level. Methods: Using Eurostat data, we decompose the changes that have occurred in the working-age population into cohort turnover and net migration effects for the 2015–2019 period, at territorial (NUTS3 and urban-intermediate-rural) levels. Results: The majority (63%) of European (NUTS3) territories experienced negative cohort turnover effects alongside positive net migration effects during the 2015–2019 period. However, in only 27% of these territories, net migration counterbalanced the deficit in the working-age population due to cohort turnover. Conclusions: In 2015–2019, migration was the underlying force in the evolution of the working-age population, partially compensating for the loss of population due to the cohort turnover. This effect was particularly pronounced in urban areas. Contribution: Our contribution is twofold. First, we map EU NUTS3 territories where the working-age population is declining rapidly. Second, we give an assessment of the varied role of migration in mitigating the effect of ageing and shrinking working-age populations across EU urban, intermediate, and rural areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Ghio & Anne Goujon & Fabrizio Natale, 2022. "Assessing the demographic impact of migration on the working-age population across European territories," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(9), pages 261-272.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:46:y:2022:i:9
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2022.46.9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Esping-Andersen, Gosta, 1999. "Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198742005.
    2. Morin, Louis-Philippe, 2015. "Cohort size and youth earnings: Evidence from a quasi-experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 99-111.
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    Cited by:

    1. Annamaria Fiore, 2023. "Youth and female unemployment: a critical issue for inner areas in Puglia. Needs and opportunities in the silver economy age," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 77(4), pages 203-214, October-D.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    working-age; working-age population; cohort turnover; net migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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