Who moves out and who keeps the home? Short-term and medium-term mobility consequences of grey divorce in Belgium

Background: Research shows that women are more likely to move out after a separation, but the evidence is largely limited to younger ages. Little is known about short-term and medium-term mobility consequences in the case of a ‘grey divorce’. Objective: Focusing on married couples separating at ages 50 to 70, we investigate who leaves the joint home upon separation and in the years immediately following separation. Considering ex-couple characteristics, we contrast the bargaining principle, which predicts higher moving-out rates for women, and the fairness principle, which points to the opposite. Methods: Using Belgian register and census data, we study marital couples who separated in 2002 at ages 50 to 70 after a marriage of at least 15 years’ duration. We follow them for three years and estimate their moving patterns using multinomial logistic regressions and continuous-time models that account for the lagged effect of separation. Results: Older women have a relative advantage in keeping the home at separation and maintain this advantage in the years following the separation. This finding contrasts with prior findings concerning younger ex-couples. Exceptions are women who are significantly younger than their ex-partner, whose children remain with the father, who live at their husband’s birthplace, and who rent rather than own the home. Conclusions: Our findings point to a principle of fairness at play in the moving-out decision among older separating couples. Nonetheless, not all women benefit from this advantage. Contribution: We show that post-divorce moving-out patterns are different at older ages. Looking beyond the immediate moment of separation allows for firmer conclusions to be reached about whether the home is eventually kept.