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Prospective versus retrospective measurement of unwanted fertility: Strengths, weaknesses, and inconsistencies assessed for a cohort of US women

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  • Heather Rackin

    (Louisiana State University)

  • S. Philip Morgan

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Abstract

Background: Unwanted fertility is the key concept necessary to assess the potential impact of more perfect fertility control. Measuring this continues to be a significant challenge, with several plausible competing measurement strategies. Retrospective strategies ask respondents, either during pregnancy or after birth, to recall if they wanted a(nother) birth at conception; these reports are likely to be biased by an unwillingness to label a pregnancy or birth as unwanted (rationalization bias). Prospective strategies avoid this bias by questioning respondents prior to pregnancy, but reports are obtained months or years before pregnancy and so may not accurately reflect wantedness at conception. Objective: We describe systematic errors associated with each strategy, show correspondence between strategies, and examine predictors of inconsistency. Methods: Using the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we compare retrospective and prospective reports for 6,495 births from 3,578 women. Results: The prospective strategy produces a higher percentage of unwanted births than the retrospective strategy. But the two reports of wantedness are strongly associated – especially for the second birth (vs. other births) and for women with stable (vs. unstable) expectation patterns. Nevertheless, discordant reports are common and are predicted by women’s characteristics. Conclusions: Retrospective measures are biased by rationalization; prospective measures are biased when women change their expectations prior to conception. For practical and theoretical reasons, we argue that retrospective measurement is more promising for assessing wantedness. Contribution: We highlight shortcomings in both approaches. Demographers may find ways to measure wantedness more accurately, but many of the measurement problems seem intractable.

Suggested Citation

  • Heather Rackin & S. Philip Morgan, 2018. "Prospective versus retrospective measurement of unwanted fertility: Strengths, weaknesses, and inconsistencies assessed for a cohort of US women," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(3), pages 61-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:39:y:2018:i:3
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ted Joyce & Robert Kaestner & Sanders Korenman, 2002. "On the validity of retrospective assessments of pregnancy intention," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(1), pages 199-213, February.
    2. Emily Smith-Greenaway & Christie Sennott, 2016. "Death and Desirability: Retrospective Reporting of Unintended Pregnancy After a Child’s Death," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(3), pages 805-834, June.
    3. Heather M. Rackin & Christine A. Bachrach, 2016. "Assessing the Predictive Value of Fertility Expectations Through a Cognitive–Social Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(4), pages 527-551, August.
    4. Christine A. Bachrach & S. Philip Morgan, 2013. "A Cognitive–Social Model of Fertility Intentions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 459-485, September.
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    6. Jennifer Barber & Patricia East, 2011. "Children’s Experiences After the Unintended Birth of a Sibling," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 101-125, February.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zuzanna Brzozowska & Isabella Buber-Ennser & Bernhard Riederer, 2021. "Didn’t Plan One but got One: Unintended and sooner-than-intended Parents in the East and the West of Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 727-767, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unintended pregnancy; unwanted pregnancy; fertility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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