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From Some to None? Fertility Expectation Dynamics of Permanently Childless Women

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  • Alison Gemmill

    (Stony Brook University)

Abstract

Permanent childlessness is increasingly acknowledged as an outcome of a dynamic, context-dependent process, but few studies have integrated a life course framework to investigate the complex pathways leading to childlessness. This study focuses on an understudied yet revealing dimension of why individuals remain childless: stated fertility expectations over the life course. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort, I use a combination of sequence analysis, data-driven clustering techniques, and multivariable regression models to identify and describe groups of permanently childless women who follow similar trajectories of stated fertility expectations. Results indicate that a little more than one-half (56 %) of eventually childless women fall into a cluster where childlessness is expected before age 30. Women in the remaining clusters (44 %) transition to expecting childlessness later in the life course but are differentiated by the types of trajectories that precede the emergence of a childless expectation. Results from multivariable regression show that several respondent characteristics, including race/ethnicity, education, and marital history, predict cluster membership. Taken together, these findings add to a growing body of literature that provides a more nuanced description of permanently childless women and motivates further research that integrates interdependencies between life course domains and fertility expectations and decision-making of those who remain childless.

Suggested Citation

  • Alison Gemmill, 2019. "From Some to None? Fertility Expectation Dynamics of Permanently Childless Women," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(1), pages 129-149, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:56:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s13524-018-0739-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-018-0739-7
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    2. Wen-Jui Han & Julia Shu-Huah Wang, 2022. "Changing Employment and Work Schedule Patterns over the 30 Working Years—A Sequential Cluster Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Anna Rotkirch, 2020. "The wish for a child," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 49-61.
    4. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, 2022. "The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals Among a US Cohort in the Post‐Recession Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 991-1026, December.
    5. Natalie Nitsche & Sarah R. Hayford, 2020. "Preferences, Partners, and Parenthood: Linking Early Fertility Desires, Marriage Timing, and Achieved Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 1975-2001, December.
    6. Vincenzo Galasso, 2024. "The Role of Salience and Memory in Fertility Decisions: Experimental Evidence," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-18, August.

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