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Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle: Population Dynamics in Historic China

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  • Chu, C Y Cyrus
  • Lee, Ronald D

Abstract

Historians have long noticed that population declines in ancient China often coincided with dynasty changes, and that most of these declines were the result of iternecine wars which, in turn, were often initiated by famine or density pressure. Since the interactions between density pressure, internecine wars, and dynasty changes cannot be explained by the traditional age-specific density-dependent population structure, we propose to use a bandit/peasant/ruler occupation-specific population model to interpret the dynamic socio-economic transitions of ancient Chinese population, and provide econometric support to our model. We also highlight the rich dynamics of the composition of human population, a factor which was often neglected in previous research on general populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Chu, C Y Cyrus & Lee, Ronald D, 1994. "Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle: Population Dynamics in Historic China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 351-378, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:7:y:1994:i:4:p:351-78
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    Cited by:

    1. Harry Lee & David Zhang, 2013. "A tale of two population crises in recent Chinese history," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 285-308, January.
    2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Mark Koyama & Youhong Lin & Tuan-Hwee Sng, 2023. "The Fractured-Land Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1173-1231.
    3. Chris Wilson, 2013. "Thinking about post-transitional demographic regimes," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(46), pages 1373-1388.
    4. Lu, Jie, 2015. "Varieties of Governance in China: Migration and Institutional Change in Chinese Villages," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199378746.
    5. Haiwen Zhou, 2023. "Unification and Division: A Theory of Institutional Choices in Imperial China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(1), pages 13-37, May.
    6. Qiang Chen, 2015. "Climate Shocks, State Capacity and Peasant Uprisings in North China during 25–1911 ce," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(326), pages 295-318, April.
    7. Andrey Korotayev & Julia Zinkina, 2015. "East africa in the Malthusian trap? A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators," Papers 1503.08441, arXiv.org.

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