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China’s far below replacement fertility and its long-term impact: Comments on the preliminary results of the 2010 census

Author

Listed:
  • Zhongwei Zhao

    (Australian National University)

  • Wei Chen

    (Renmin University of China)

Abstract

The Chinese government conducted its sixth national census in 2010 and released its major results in April 2011. According to the National Bureau of Statistics the quality of the census was very high. Although the currently released census results consist of limited statistics only, they shed new light on China’s recent fertility levels, which have been debated among scholars and policy makers for more than a decade. The 2010 census results, however, also show considerable inconsistencies with those published by the United Nations Population Division recently. This paper will, on the basis of newly published census results and other available evidence, further examine China’s recent fertility decline and its impact on the country’s long-term development. It will also comment on the major discrepancies between the results of Chinese government recent population projection, the United Nations’ World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision and China’s 2010 census, and investigate the underlying causes that have led to these differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhongwei Zhao & Wei Chen, 2011. "China’s far below replacement fertility and its long-term impact: Comments on the preliminary results of the 2010 census," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(26), pages 819-836.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:25:y:2011:i:26
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert D. Retherford & Minja Kim Choe & Jiajian Chen & Li Xiru & Cui Hongyan, 2005. "How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(1), pages 57-84, March.
    2. Yong Cai, 2008. "An assessment of China’s fertility level using the variable-r method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 271-281, May.
    3. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1003_0451 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Guangyu Zhang & Zhongwei Zhao, 2006. "Reexamining China's Fertility Puzzle: Data Collection and Quality over the Last Two Decades," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(2), pages 293-321, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2012. "China's Gender Imbalance and its Economic Performance," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Shaobin Wang & Zhoupeng Ren, 2019. "Spatial variations and macroeconomic determinants of life expectancy and mortality rate in China: a county-level study based on spatial analysis models," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 64(5), pages 773-783, June.
    4. Zhiyun Li & Hualei Yang & Xianchen Zhu & Lin Xie, 2021. "A Multilevel Study of the Impact of Egalitarian Attitudes Toward Gender Roles on Fertility Desires in China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(4), pages 747-769, August.
    5. Quanbao Jiang & Xiaomin Li & Shuzhuo Li & Marcus W. Feldman, 2016. "China’s Marriage Squeeze: A Decomposition into Age and Sex Structure," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 793-807, June.
    6. Daniel Goodkind, 2017. "The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1375-1400, August.
    7. Quanbao Jiang & Ying Li & Jesús Sánchez-Barricarte, 2016. "Fertility Intention, Son Preference, and Second Childbirth: Survey Findings from Shaanxi Province of China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 935-953, February.
    8. Yi Zeng & Linda George & Melanie Sereny & Danan Gu & James W. Vaupel, 2015. "Older parents enjoy better filial piety and care from daughters than sons in China," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-012, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; fertility level; census data; UN 2010 Population Projection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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