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Constant global population with demographic heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Joel E. Cohen

    (Rockefeller University)

Abstract

To understand better a possible future constant global population that is demographically heterogeneous, this paper analyzes several models. Classical theory of stationary populations generally fails to apply. However, if constant global population size P(global) is the sum of all country population sizes, and if constant global annual number of births B(global) is the sum of the annual number of births of all countries, and if constant global life expectancy at birth e(global) is the population-weighted mean of the life expectancy at birth of all countries, then B(global) x e(global) always exceeds P(global) unless all countries have the same life expectancy at birth.

Suggested Citation

  • Joel E. Cohen, 2008. "Constant global population with demographic heterogeneity," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(14), pages 409-436.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:18:y:2008:i:14
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.18.14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil Howe & Richard Jackson, 2004. "Projecting Immigration A Survey of the Current State of Practice and Theory," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2004-32, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2004.
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    3. N. Kaldor, 1971. "A Comment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 38(1), pages 45-46.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    life expectancy; migration; population projection; heterogeneity; stationary population; zero population growth; constant population; pensions; average age; Cauchy-Schwarz inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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