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On the Impact of Spatial Momentum

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  • Robert Schoen

    (Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

Momentum, the population growth that occurs after a fall in fertility to replacement level, has long been appreciated as a factor in the future population growth of many countries. This paper argues that another aspect of growing populations - their high proportion rural - is also a source of significant growth, and refers to the additional growth attributable to geographical redistribution as spatial momentum. Using simplifying assumptions, a model for analyzing spatial momentum is developed based on population composition, rates of growth, and levels of interregional migration. Calculations are then done using (i) hypothetical populations exhibiting a range of plausible demographic behavior, and (ii) the population of Mexico, 1970. The results show that spatial momentum can have a substantial impact on ultimate population size under commonly encountered circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Schoen, 2002. "On the Impact of Spatial Momentum," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(3), pages 49-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:3
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathan Keyfitz, 1971. "On the momentum of population growth," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 8(1), pages 71-80, February.
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    6. Young Kim & Robert Schoen, 1997. "Population momentum expresses population aging," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(3), pages 421-427, August.
    7. Martin Brockerhoff, 1999. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Projections and Predictions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(4), pages 757-778, December.
    8. Shapiro, D. & Tambashe, B.O., 1999. "Fertility Transition in Urban and Rural Areas of Sub-Saharan Africa," Papers 9-99-1, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    9. John Bongaarts & Rodolfo A. Bulatao, 1999. "Completing the Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(3), pages 515-529, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joel E. Cohen, 2008. "Constant global population with demographic heterogeneity," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 18(14), pages 409-436.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population growth; urbanization; population momentum; spatial momentum;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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